Q1库存水位升高：供应商有意为之

市场研究机构 IHS iSuppli 的最新报告指出，全球半导体供货商由于预期客户有较高的需求，在 2012年第一季再度提高库存水位；据统计，第一季全球半导体供货商库存量占据厂商当季营收的五成，该比例在2011年第四季是47.8%、在2011年第三季是46.1%。 IHS iSuppli指出，虽然半导体库存水位在过去两季连续上涨，但其理由与对市场的影响却大不相同。“2011年第四季的半导体库存水位上扬原因，是由于欧债危机等因素导致的宏观经济景气不明，导致全球市场对半导体的需求出现衰退。”IHS分析师Sharon Stiefel表示，2011年第四季半导体供货商库存水位上升同时，客户的芯片库存是减少的，显示需求降低；但在2012年第一季，芯片供货商库存水位增加，则是反映需求有所成长。 Stiefel指出：“芯片供货商与客户的库存水位都出现成长，意味着供应端与需求端都认为电子产业大环境的发展朝向正面。”在3月份，IHS预期半导体供货商第一季平均库存天数将继2011年第四季达到11天的高点之后，减少0.5%。 电子零件通路业的半导体库存量占据营收比例，在2011年第四季由第三季的41.7%减少至36.9%；其它半导体客户端也有类似的状况。不过IHS指出，在2012年第一季，半导体供货商订单量增加，订单出货比也达到平均，意味着供需状况逐渐达到平衡。这样的发展情势再加上对第二季需求成长的预期，使得半导体供货商库存再度上扬。

半导体库存水位变化Qo1esmc

半导体库存占据厂商营收比例Qo1esmc

但尽管市场景气有所改善，部分领域厂商应该要维持不动，特别是内存业者；IHS指出，内存供货商过去通常会以提升产能的方式来因应需求成长，如此就会导致供应过剩。此外模拟芯片市场也有潜在问题，因为该领域会高度反映在景气循环中通常复苏速度较慢的工业用通讯基础设施等市场。 不过IHS表示，随着整体半导体市场销售额预期在今年将呈现成长，半导体库存在其中占据的比例也会跟着成长；对于需求逐渐恢复稳定的预期，将让半导体供货商更确信库存水位保持在适当的位置。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Q1 chip inventories signal rising demand, IHS says

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{pagination} Q1 chip inventories signal rising demand, IHS says Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Semiconductor suppliers increased their inventories for the second straight quarter in the first quarter, this time driven by anticipation of higher demand from customers, according to a report by market research firm IHS iSuppli. Total chip inventory as a percentage of suppliers' revenue amounted to 50 percent in the first quarter, up from 47.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 and from 46.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011, IHS said. While inventory increased in each of the last two quarters, the reasons for the increases and the implications for the market differed dramatically, according to IHS iSuppli's latest Inventory Insider market brief. "In the fourth quarter, inventory rose among suppliers because of uncertain macroeconomic conditions such as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, leading to an overall decline in the worldwide demand for semiconductors," said Sharon Stiefel, semiconductor inventory analyst at IHS, in a statement. While chip suppliers' inventories rose in the fourth quarter of 2011, customers' chip stockpiles declined, indicative of lower demand, Stiefel said. But, in contrast, the higher inventory among chip suppliers in the first quarter signal better demand to come, Stiefel said. "There was an increasing level of inventory both among chip suppliers and customers, indicating that both the supply and demand sides of the business believe that the environment in the electronics market has turned positive," Stiefel said. In March, IHS said it expected average days of inventory held by semiconductor suppliers to decline by 0.5 percent in the first quarter after hitting an 11-year high in the fourth quarter of 2011. Customer inventory held by electronics distributors fell to 36.9 percent of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 41.7 percent in the third quarter, according to IHS. The same pattern of decreasing inventory replicated across various semiconductor customer segments during the same period, the firm said. But in the first quarter of this year, suppliers saw order bookings fill up, allowing them to gain greater visibility into the supply chain, according to IHS. Book-to-bill ratios are also close to reaching parity, indicating more balanced supply-and demand dynamics, the firm said. Such developments, combined with anticipated higher demand for the second quarter, led to a rise in inventory as a percentage of supplier revenue during the first quarter, according to IHS. But despite the improvement in market conditions, some problem areas do persist, especially in the memory segment, IHS said. Memory chip vendors have historically responded to increased demand by bringing more capacity online, leading to oversupply, the firm noted. IHS said another potential problem area is the analog chip market. The analog market is highly exposed to markets like industrial communications infrastructure that are traditionally slower to rebound from cyclical downturns. But IHS said that as overall semiconductor sales increase over the course of this year, the ratio of inventory to sales increasingly should come into alignment. The anticipated return to moderate demand will also give semiconductor suppliers an extra dose of confidence in knowing that their inventory levels are appropriate, IHS predicted.