ASML这次学聪明了，上菜前请供货商们先付账

英特尔(Intel)投资设备商 ASML 公司 41亿美元的举动，跟在餐厅侍者上菜前就先付账的做法没有什么不同。但 ASML 有理由这样做。10年前，当半导体产业开始从200mm晶圆过渡到300mm晶圆时，芯片制造商们便说服工具供货商来为新制程的研发买单，并承诺他们将凭 借着强劲的芯片销售来回馈给新系统。然而，当网络泡沫来临时，他们却溜之大吉，更大的意外是──芯片制造商决定推迟部署300mm产能。 可想而知许多设备界的高层有多痛苦了。特别是几年前，芯片制造商又谈论朝450mm晶圆转移的谈话之际。 许多人打从一开始就对450mm能否成真抱持怀疑态度。现在看来，450mm是不可避免的，尽管传统的看法都认为只有少数几家芯片制造商──特别是英特尔(Intel)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)、台积电(TSMC)和 Globalfoundries 等公司有能力建造450mm生产线。 而 且，从提出450mm开始，业界就充斥着许多辩论，包括工具供货商和他们的客户将如何分配转移到新晶圆尺寸的相关研发成本。市调机构 Gartner 的分析师Bob Johnson本周说，450mm的累计研发成本将达170亿美元，而今年度大约占20亿美元。而其它机构则有各式各样不同的预估数字。 一 些刚萌芽的研究项目正在努力进行研发，其中包括由英特尔(Intel)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)、台积电(TSMC)和 Globalfoundries等芯片巨擘共同组成，耗资48亿美元的「全球450联盟(Global 450 Consortium)」在内。 但 对部份工具制造商来说，这些远远不够。微影设备供货商 ASML Holding NV公司眼见450mm一再延宕的困境。要转移到450mm，将会需要全新的微影设备，以及可支持更大尺寸、重量更重的晶圆，而不会发生震动的载台，以避 免因震动而导致无法作出精确的微影曝光。 ASML 公司已经预见到，仅有少数芯片制造商会购买新工具，投资报酬率将非常有限。 当然，ASML早已投入450mm晶圆的研发，但这是在该公司激活一个创新的客户合作计划，要求希望转移到450mm晶圆，以及获得超紫外光(EUV)微影技术的芯片制造商，也共同投入新技术的研发。 本 周一(7月9日)，英特尔宣布以41亿美元收购ASML公司15%股份，加快450mm和EUV技术发展。其中除了超过30亿美元是用在收购ASML股份 外，英特尔也针对新技术的开发挹注10亿美元。当然，英特尔也承诺将进一步采购450mm和EUV技术的开发和生产工具。 三星、台积电必须买单 ASML 还将再出售另外10%的股份给其它希望发展450mm晶圆和EUV微影工具的芯片制造商。该公司目前正在和三星、台积电讨论。若这些公司拒绝或同意参与， 但并未买下10%股份，ASML公司仍愿意出售剩余部份，并将邀请其它公司加入。 (由于ASML订定的条款，英特尔的股份收购上限为15%。) 整件事看起来，确实像上餐前就先把账给付掉。但ASML有理由这样做。 ASML不会在钱没到位以前就先投资450mm。由于ASML在微影市场举足轻重，因此没有ASML投入，450mm就很难发展。 在 朝450mm 转移的过程中，英特尔将获得最大利益。该公司财务长Stacy Smith表示，预计转移到450mm将为英特尔节省超过100亿美元的制造成本。因此，英特尔只要求ASML报出价钱，毫无疑问，财大气粗的英特尔也将 让想转移到450mm和EUV微影技术的竞争对手获益，因为最终他们也能获得相关工具。 英特尔已经买下15%股份了。即使英 特尔是唯一一家入股ASML，直接支持其技术发展的芯片公司，这家全球最大的芯片制造商也将在每一次竞争对手掏出支票簿来准备购买新工具时，抢先一步赢得 先机。ASML公司发言人表示，英特尔态度非常坚定，因为他们看到了开发这些技术的利益所在。 无论是三星、台积电，或是任何 其它的芯片供货商会入股ASML公司都有待观察。入股ASML确实有些好处，特别是在英特尔也投下钜资之际，毫无疑问，ASML必然会开发450mm工具 (还有EUV，尽管该技术距离成熟还很遥远)。一旦ASML的工具准备就绪，包括三星、台积电和其它任何想跟进的厂商，都得付钱购买新工具。 但三星和台积电将做出明智抉择，并将参与其中。当450mm工具就绪时，领先的芯片制造商将会立即需要它们。如果三星和台积电放弃这个机会，他们获得新工具的顺序就会排在英特尔之后了。 英 特尔已经获得15%的ASML股权，三星和台积电也都有可能出资买下其它可出售股份，不过这些都是无投票权股份。依常理来看，当客户真的决定对设备商挹注 研发资金共同开发新技术时，他们通常会大加宣扬。三星、台积电和任何其它可能投资的公司若再不展开行动，届时就可能会发现自己被拒于新技术的门外。 编译： Joy Teng 参考英文原文：ASML won't get fooled again，by Dylan McGrath

相关阅读：
• 借势伦敦，家电业掀“奥运营销”潮
• 中国中产阶级钟情电子产品，网络零售的“完美风暴”即将降临
• ASML获英特尔投资，力邀台积电、三星也加入 21sesmc

{pagination} ASML won't get fooled again Dylan McGrath When the semiconductor industry began the transition from 200-mm wafers to 300-mm wafers more than a decade ago, chip makers convinced tool suppliers to foot the bill for the R&D required to make the move with the promise that they would be justly and richly rewarded with robust sales of the new systems, which much of the industry appeared anxious to adopt. But they were left holding the bag when the dot come bubble burst and—surprise—chip makers decided to delay deployment of 300-mm capacity. Many equipment industry executives were understandably bitter about this. This was in large part the reason that, when chip makers first began making noise about moving to 450-mm wafers a few years ago, the sound you heard was mostly echos and crickets chirping. A lot of people were skeptical right from the beginning that 450-mm would happen at all. Now it appears that 450-mm is inevitable, though the conventional wisdom holds that only a handful of chip makers—notably Intel Corp., Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and Globalfoundries Inc.—will ever build 450-mm manufacturing lines. Samsung, TSMC must pony up ASML is willing to sell another 10 percent of the company to other chip makers who are willing to kick in for the development of 450-mm litho tools and EUV. The firm is currently in discussions with both Samsung and TSMC on taking a piece of the action. If those firms decline to participate, or agree to participate but don't collectively buy the entire 10 percent remaining that ASML is willing to sell, ASML will invite others to participate. (As a condition imposed by ASML, Intel's stake in the company is limited to a maximum of 15 percent.) The whole thing is not unlike a waiter bringing the check before serving the meal. But it had to be this way. ASML was not going to put out the investment required on 450-mm without money up front. And owing to its dominant market share in leading-edge lithography tools, there will be no 450-mm chip production without ASML. Intel has the most to gain from the move to 450-mm. Stacy Smith, the company's chief financial officer, said this week that it expects the move to 450-mm to save the company more than $10 billion in manufacturing costs. Still, Intel alone takes ASML up on its offer, its deep pockets will no doubt also benefit rivals who will then get access to 450-mm and EUV lithography tools. That's where the 15 percent stake comes in. Even if Intel is the only chip firm to directly support ASML's development of these technologies, the world's biggest chip maker will get a piece of the action every time a rival pulls out its checkbook to buy one of the new tools. In the words of a spokesman for ASML, Intel now has real skin in the game and even more interest in seeing the development of these technologies succeed. Whether Samsung, TSMC or any other chip vendor takes ASML up on its offer remains to be seen. On one hand, it can be argued, there is little incentive for them to do so at this point. Especially now that Intel has put its money where its mouth is, there is little doubt that ASML will develop 450-mm tools (though for EUV, the case is far from closed). Once ASML has the tools available, they will presumably be happy to sell them to Samsung, TSMC and anyone else who wants them and has the means to pay. But Samsung and TSMC would be wise to pony up and get involved. When 450-mm tools become available, the leading-edge chip makers will want them ASAP. While there is no publicly disclosed intent to give Intel right of first refusal on new tools—other than those Intel has already committed to buying—come sense dictates that you take care of any part owners of your company before shopping them to the general public. If Samsung and TSMC don't get in on the ground floor, they may end up waiting until Intel is pretty sure it has all of the tools it wants before they get their hands on any. Also, Intel's 15 percent stake in ASML—as well as any stake Samsung and TSMC may take—is in non-voting shares. But again, common sense dictates that the customer who is helping to foot the bill for the development of the technology will have a louder voice when it's time to make development decisions. Samsung, TSMC and any other firm that does not get in on the action may find itself outside looking in.