信品牌得永生，功能机将原地满血复活

过去一段时间以来，手机产业彷佛上演了一部“功能手机终于垮台”的电影，而击倒功能手机的英雄则是苹果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)。他们各自用智能手机接管了移动世界，而诺基亚(Nokia)则因轻忽智能手机，未能及早掌握机会而招致失败。。 简单点来说，这是大多数业界人士都会认同的过程。 不过，这部电影会有什么结局？ 至少，我个人认为，“垮台的功能手机”可能会出现出人意料的另类结局(不过仅限蓝光版本)。 任何一部优秀的惊悚片，都必须包含一些特定元素──如神鬼认证系列中的Jason Bourne──我的意思是，功能手机在关键时刻必须被打倒，不过，在接下来的某个时刻，它又以“入门级”智能手机之姿重新现身。 所以，我期待有更多的续集，像是“功能手机──最终章”、“功能手机第二弹”、“功能手机大战小怪兽”等等。在我看来，谁能抓住入门级智能手机这个机会，谁就有可能在下一轮竞争中获得成功。 这些猜想合理吗？你愿意打赌吗？因为我已经看到一些迹象出现了。 首先是 Firefox 操作系统。虽然它还未获得广泛认可，但这种基于HTML5的手机操作系统仍足以在业界激起辩论。 40美元的智能手机 第二，是低成本智能手机领域所承受的固定市场压力。今年六月初，展讯(Spreadtrum) CEO李力游接受《EE Times》采访时表示，“我们客户已经准备好今年内推出 40美元智能手机了。”每一家芯片业者和手机供货商都想尽方法推出低成本解决方案，因而让市场上充满了各种不同等级的智能手机。 第三，营运商都希望规划一种可完全掌控使用者账单的机制。“目前，只有少数营运商为 Android 规划了专有的计费机制，而且全部都集中在发达国家，”IHS Screen Digest移动分析师Daniel Glesson说。“其它的应用程序或游戏等付费机制，全都得透过信用 卡。显然，营运商希望自己掌控，以便在庞大的应用软件市场中分得一小杯羹。” 第四，由于苹果 iOS 与 Google Android IP 之间的法律纠纷不断升级，手机厂商也正暗中寻找替代系统──最好是能免费提供。 第五，我们千万别忘了在美国与欧洲以外，全球还有尚未使用智能手机的极巨大市场等待开发，这将为下一世代的新兴行动技术和行动设备供货商提供庞大商机。 总而言之，我深信，功能手机(好吧，是'入门级智能手机')绝不会消失，因为在我看来，智能手机与功能手机的定义根本没什么意义。充其量不过是智能手机的支持者用来让自己行销更加方便的包装罢了。 举个例子，入门级智能手机和功能手机之间，究竟有什么明显的分界？ 是操作系统？应用处理器吗？还是指手机具备执行第三方应用程序的能力？ 你可能会说以上皆备。然而，从使用者的角度来看，今天所谓的功能手机的功能已经很丰富了──它们都搭载无线连接(Wi-Fi、GPS、行动宽频)；网络存取以及整合CMOS传感器相机等。 假设我是一家渴望跻身智能手机之列的功能手机供货商。如果我改变操作系统，并让我的新功能手机可以执行一些应用软件，那么，理论上我就可以将它称之为一 款入门级智能手机。我要做的只是在纳入更多必要组件──包括CPU、应用处理器、绘图单元、内存、操作系统、显示器之后，尽可能维持低的系统成本。 在我看来，这就是 Firefox 操作系统之所以问世的真正原因。 如果你想将功能型手机变身为入门级智能手机，你可以用 Android 。但是， Firefox OS 却可能达到更好的效果。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 本文下一页：Firefox操作系统造就100美元智能机

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{pagination} IHS Screen Digest 移动分析师Daniel Gleeson解释道：“在新兴市场中，Firefox操作系统可望获得许多智能手机采用。首款采用该系统的终端零售价预计将低于100美元，低于低阶的 Android手机和三星的Bada平台，甚至会比诺基亚的Asha 311等高阶功能手机便宜。” 更具体来看，IHS估计，若采用较低功耗的处理器和较少的内存，大约可节省40～60美元左右。若手机可利用云端储存，还可再进一步节省成本，不过，由于这类手机主要瞄准经济较不发达的市场，因此这可能不是可行选项。 Mozilla已经与Telefonica合作，在今年2月的巴塞罗那移动世界大会中展示了其平台和主要特色。 新平台结合了HTML5，以及一些Linux核心要素。 IHS的Gleeson指出，“执行HTML5意味着Mozilla可以从操作系统中拿掉许多中介软件，让针对CPU和内存的软件部份更加轻巧。” 本月稍早，路透社报导“Telefonica公司表示，基于Firefox5的手机价格将大幅低于低阶Android手机，这意味着不含电信业者补贴情况下，Firefox手机的定价水准大约在50美元左右。”相较之下，目前一部典型智能手机的价格大约为200美元。 对Firefox的品牌意识 在价格因素以外，Gleeson指出，部份市场如欧洲，也可能具有较强的Firefox品牌意识。他表示，“Android早已打入欧洲，但在西欧，智能手机普及率只有42%。”他认为“欧洲市场仍有空间容纳更便宜、更易于使用的智能手机，特别是当地对Android平台忠诚度并不高。在许多欧洲国家，Firefox是使用最广泛的桌面浏览器，如法国，德国和波兰(根据StatCounter)，因此Firefox在当地也拥有强烈的品牌意识作为 发展基础。” 当然，还有巴西，这个Mozilla与Telefonica合作，首度推出基于Firefox操作系统手机的地方。 中国的TCL Communication Technology和中兴通信(ZTE)将以Alcatel One Touch品牌推出全新的Firefox OS智能手机。不过，Gleeson在巴西看到了更大的机会，因为巴西目前的智能手机渗透率仍然低于15%。 虽 然展讯的芯片并不是为了TCL或中兴的首款Firefox OS手机所开发(事实上他们使用了高通(Qualcomm)的 Snapdragon 处理器)，但展讯已经快速宣布将针对Mozilla的HTML5手机推出产品。展讯在2012年行动通讯亚洲大会(Mobile Asia Congress 2012)上推出了采用其1GHz SC8810智能手机芯片的参考设计。并在Mozilla的摊位上展示执行Mozilla的Firefox OS的模型。 然而，一个最根本的问题，在于 Mozilla 是否具备足够的吸引力，能从头建立Firefox OS生态系统，包括开发工具、应用软件，以及推动开发者社群成形等。这是过去 Palm 在被惠普(HP)收购前，一直未能为 WebOS 做到的。 Gleeson 指出， Firefox OS 和 WebOS 之间的最主要区别，就在于 Firefox OS 是完全免费开放给所有OEM厂商。而WebOS则否。在惠普接手后没多久，该公司更宣布完全停止发展WebOS。但另一方面，Mozilla看起来则是很 有可能长期参与行动市场。 他的评论非常公正。 许多市场分析师都认为，新的Firefox平台可吸引到300~500万的网络开发人员，进而克服许多问题。大多数的应用程序都是在HTML5上建构的，而HTML5正是发展行动浏览器内容的首选标准。 Gleeson 也同意上述观点。“Firefox OS对开发人员来说是相当好的平台。它以HTML5为基础，因此，开发人员不需要为了这个操作系统建立其应用程序的本地版本；任何一种Web应用程序都可 在该平台上运作。这也意味着该操作系统打从一开始就会有大量的应用软件支持。” Gleeson指出，“有好几百万人，特别是在新兴市场，都将以手机作为连接网络的主要媒介。对Mozilla来说，打入行动市场，攸关着未来该公司能否参与相关行动标准的制定。 出于类似的理由，入门级智能手机对于希望争取市占率的新手机厂商也至关重要。那么，唯一剩下的问题，就是今天的主要手机业者还会继续忽视这种入门级产品多久时间。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译： Joy Teng 参考英文原文：The Feature phone rises (again?)，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} The Feature phone rises (again?) Junko Yoshida NEW YORK -- We all feel like we’ve already seen the movie: “Downfall of the Feature Phones.” Our heroes are Apple and Samsung. They take over the world with their smartphones, while Nokia — the stereotype of the bumbling rival — ignores the early warning signs of smartphone ascendancy, spurns the lovely ingénue, Android, and ends up in bed with the Vamp of Redmond, Microsoft. As simplistic as this plotline sounds, it’s the narrative many in the industry have come to accept. But here’s the thing. Have we actually seen how this movie ends? I, for one, believe that the “Downfall of the Feature Phones” may have a surprising, alternative ending (but only in the Blu-Ray version). As in any good thriller, it goes, something like this: Just about when we all thought Jason Bourne — I mean, feature phones — must be dead this time, boing! They spring back to life and come back as… “entry-level” smartphones. I anticipate more switcheroo’s in sequels (“The Feature Phone Ultimatum,” “The Feature Phone Legacy,” “The Feature Phone vs. Godzilla”), in which incumbents who choose to ignore the new “entry-level” category (‘because it’s too low end’) are pitted against a host of newcomers who seize the opportunity to build a fortune on entry-level smartphones. Incumbents could get clobbered. Is it plausible? You bet. I already see signs that make such plots believable. First is the emergence of Firefox OS. While the jury’s still out on yet another new mobile OS, this HTML5-based mobile operating system may have enough power to stir the debate. $40 smartphone Second, there is mounting market pressure (from handset vendors and operators alike) for low, low-cost smartphones. In an interview with EE Times in early June, Spreadtrum’s CEO Leo Li was on the record by saying that “our customers are ready to roll out $40 ‘real’ smartphones this year.” Every chip company and handset vendor is in the market for a solution that makes all levels of smartphones possible at low cost. Third, operators are hatching a plot to retain full control of the billing relationship with subscribers. “Currently, operator billing is available for Android for only a handful of operators, all in developed countries,” according to Daniel Gleeson, an analyst on Mobile at IHS Screen Digest. “Otherwise payments for apps, games etc. go through credit card companies. Obviously operators would prefer that this goes through them as they would get a small slice of that pie as well.” Fourth, as legal wrangling escalates on Apple iOS vs. Google’s Android IP front, handset vendors are surreptitiously looking for an alternative system – possibly something available for free. Fifth, let’s not forget about a huge global market -- beyond the United States and Europe -- that hasn’t embraced smartphones yet. This creates big openings for developers of new technologies and new players on the mobile market. Above all, I’m convinced that feature phones (OK, “entry-level smartphones”) are not going away, largely because the definition of smartphones vs. feature phones, in my opinion, is fundamentally phony. At best, it’s based on a self-serving marketing pitch by smartphone proponents. For example, what exactly differentiates an entry-level smartphone from a feature phone? Is it an operating system? Is it an applications processor? Is it an ability to run third-party apps on one’s phone? You may say, all of the above. But from a user’s standpoint, a so-called feature phone today is already feature-rich — equipped with wireless connectivity (WiFi, GPS, mobile broadband), Internet access and an integrated CMOS sensor camera. Assume that I’m a feature phone supplier eager to get on the smartphone bandwagon. If I change the OS, and make sure my new feature phone runs a few apps, I could, in theory, call my feature phone an entry-level smartphone. All I need do is keep the system-level cost down – a CPU, apps processor, graphics, memory footprint, OS, display, all included. That’s where Firefox OS comes in – in my opinion. If you want to morph a feature phone into an entry-level smartphone, Android can help. But Firefox OS may be able to do the job better. Brand awareness for Firefox Daniel Gleeson, analyst on Mobile at IHS Screen Digest, explained: “In emerging markets, Firefox OS can play a large part in driving smartphone adoption. With the first device anticipated to retail at less than US$100, the devices will be cheaper than the lower-end Android phones, Samsung’s Bada platform, or even high-end featurephones such as Nokia’s Asha 311.” More specifically, IHS estimate that a saving of between $40 to $60 is possible based on a lower processor power and less memory. If the handset leverages cloud storage then further saving are possible, but for handsets headed for markets where 3G is underdeveloped this may not be a viable option. Mozilla, which has been working with Telefonica, demonstrated the platform and its key features in February at the Mobile World Congress trade show in Barcelona. The new platform combines HTML5 with some of the core elements of Linux technology. IHS’ Gleeson observed, “Running just HTML5 means that Mozilla can cut out a lot of middleware from the OS; making the whole package lighter on the CPU and on the memory.” Reuters, earlier this month, reported that “Telefonica has said the [Firefox5-based] phone price will be significantly cheaper than the low-end Android models, meaning Firefox phones can be priced at levels around $50 excluding operator subsidies.” This compares with a price of around $200 for a typical smartphone. Brand awareness for Firefox Price points aside, some markets like Europe may have stronger brand awareness for Firefox, according to Gleeson. He noted, “Android is already established in Europe, but smartphone penetration is only 42% in Western Europe.” He believes “there is room for cheap, easy to use smartphones for the prepay market in particular where the platform loyalty to Android will not be as strong. Firefox is the most widely used desktop browser in many European countries such as France, Germany and Poland (according to StatCounter), so there is also strong brand awareness to build on.” And then, of course, there is Brazil, first market Mozilla picked to roll out Firefox OS-based phones in cooperation with Telefonica. Smartphones powered by the new Firefox OS will be manufactured by China’s TCL Communication Technology, under its Alcatel One Touch nameplate, and by China's ZTE. Gleeson sees a larger opportunity in Brazil because Brazil has a much lower penetration of smartphones (less than 15%). Although Spreadtrum’s chip wasn’t designed into either TCL or ZTE’s first Firefox OS phones (they used Qualcomm’s snapdragon processors), Spreadtrum has swiftly announced that it, too, is ready to power Mozilla’s HTML5-based phones. At the Mobile Asia Congress 2012 last month, Spreadtrum built its own reference design using a 1GHz SC8810 smartphone chip. The model running Mozilla's Firefox OS was demonstrated at Mozilla’s booth, according to the company. One lingering issue with Firefox OS, however, is whether Mozilla can build from scratch an attractive enough ecosystem for Firefox’s OS platform -- developer tools, applications, and development community included. That’s something Palm failed to do with its WebOS, even before it was bought by Hewlett Packard. The key difference between Firefox OS and WebOS, Gleeson points out, is that Firefox OS is made open and free for any OEM to use right out of the box. WebOS was restricted to Palm, then HP. There was also a change of strategy within HP which provided the final nail in the coffin and the company stopped pushing mobile in any meaningful form. On the other hand, Mozilla is far more likely to be involved for the long-term., he noted. Fair enough. Many market analysts explain that the new Firefox platform could overcome the problem by tapping into a community of 3 to 5 million web developers. Most of the apps are already created on HTML5, the preferred standard for creating mobile browser content. Gleeson, too, agrees. “Firefox OS is very good for developers. It is HTML5 based, so developers do not need to build native versions of their apps to work on the OS; any web-app just works out of the box on the platform. It will also mean that the OS will have plenty of apps available from day one.” According to Gleeson, “Millions of people, particularly in emerging markets, will be relying on their phones as their primary method of internet access. For Mozilla to remain relevant in the future of internet standards creation, it is vital that it has a significant mobile presence.” For the same reason, entry-level smartphones will be vital for a new breed of handset vendors looking to gain a market share. The only remaining question, then, is how long incumbent mobile phone vendors could keep ignoring this entry-level category.