两岸合力，共对全球经济危机

上周，中国大陆和台湾签了第一份投资保障协议，为强化台湾和大陆的发展铺平了道路。 该协议旨在解决为在中国进行投资的台商解决商业纠纷，以及当台商遭到拘押时如何了解自己的权益。 这是个重要的协议吗？答案是肯定的。 这项协议代表着两方政府进行长期贸易谈判过程中的一项重大进展。我们都知道，虽然大陆是台湾最大的贸易伙伴，但双方在一些立场上仍然存在分歧。而像这样的协议，则能让双方在更具前瞻性的轨道上发展未来关系。 此举也可能导致更多的合并与收购(M&A)。一些大陆企业已经开始从台湾公司手中买下IP，或是试着寻求更多专有的制造技术了。 想象一下，一旦与台湾联手，中国大陆的电子产业将会变得多么强大。 上个月，中国的进出口成长速度明显放缓，不只在中国，全球经济都出现警讯。 中国会持续让人民币贬值吗？ 另一项资料──中国的贸易统计数字──也证实了中国经济不景气的情况。 今年七月份，中国出口成长率从六月的11.3%降至仅1%，创下六个月以来的新低。进口部份六月份成长率为6.3%，七月份为4.7%。另外，贸易顺差则下降至251亿美元。 这些数字让中国出现了呼吁中国政府采取刺激经济成长措施的声音，包括让人民币进一步贬值，以帮助支撑中国出口业务。 上周稍早，中国一个颇具影响力的报纸《中国证券报》(China Securities Journal)报导，为因应全球经济恶化，中国需采取弱势货币政策。 《金融时报》(Financial Times)则认为这是“几个月以来中国外汇市场最强的讯号之一：让人民币兑美元汇率持续下跌。”

过去两年来人民币兑美元走势。
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过去12个月内人民币兑美元波动。
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当然，几乎可以肯定的一件事，就是若中国政府让人民币兑美元急剧贬值，美国和中国之间的一些其他问题也可能因此再度升温。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译： Joy Teng 参考英文原文：Yoshida in China: Taiwan-China superpower?，by Junko Yoshida

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• 经济危机下分销行业机遇特别 应强化竞争力扩大市场推广pxwesmc

{pagination} Yoshida in China: Taiwan-China superpower? Junko Yoshida Expect further investment from China to Taiwan. Fully energized cross-strait business deals between Taiwanese and Chinese companies will be emerging on the horizon. China and Taiwan signed Thursday (August 9th) their first investor-protection agreement – paving a way to strengthen Taiwan’s relationship with China. The agreement is designed to address Taiwan’s concerns about resolving business disputes in China, and questions about their rights if detained there. Is this a big deal? The answer is a resounding yes. This signals an important progress in long-running trade talks between the two governments. We all know that while China is Taiwan’s biggest trade partner, China is also Taiwan’s political adversary. An agreement like this, however, can put the relationship on a more forward-looking trajectory. This could also lead to more M&A. Chinese companies are already looking to buy intellectual property and gain manufacturing knowhow from Taiwan companies. Once teamed up with Taiwanese, imagine how powerful Chinese vendors in the electronics industry could become. Chinese export and import growth slowed markedly last month, flashing warning signals in both the domestic and the global economy. Will Beijing let renminbi fall? Yet another data point emerged to confirm China’s sluggish economy: China’s trade figures. China’s exports rose 1 per cent year on year in July, a six-month low and down from an 11.3 per cent pace in June. Imports were up 4.7 per cent, dipping from June’s 6.3 per cent pace. China was left with a $25.1bn surplus, a two-month low. These developments intensify calls in China for Beijing to take measures to stimulate growth, and to let the Renminbi depreciate further to help prop up China’s export . Earlier this week, the China Securities Journal, an influential state newspaper, wrote that China needed a weaker currency to compensate for deterioration in the global economy. The Financial Times sees this “one of the strongest signals yet that China is willing to do what forex markets have been signaling for months: let the Yuan fall against the US dollar.” Renminbi appreciates against U.S. dollars over the last two years Fluctuating renminbi against U.S. dollars over the last 12 months Of course, it’s almost certain that if Beijing let the renminbi fall more steeply against the dollar, a political dispute between the U.S. and China wouldn’t come far behind.