利润下滑，中国移动需要iPhone支援吗？

近来中国电信市场浮现不利的征兆──当地无线通信服务供应商开始发现，逐渐增加的消费者购买手机补贴已经侵蚀其利润，而且他们提升每用户平均收入(ARPU)的过程并不顺利。 同时，产业界正睁大眼睛看全球用户数最多的移动通信供应商中国移动(China Mobile)，是否会在短时间内将iPhone纳入合约手机行列。市场传言，手机芯片大厂高通(Qualcomm)将在今年稍晚推出支持中国3G标准TD-SCDMA的芯片组；但据了解，中国移动已经打算不惜重金在2013年推出支持中国4G标准的TD-LTE手机，因此TD-SCDMA标准iPhone何时上市，仍是未知数。 中国移动稍早前公布，该公司 2012上半年的扣除利息、赋税与折旧摊销营利减少了0.9%，来到1,230亿人民币(约194亿美元)。而中国规模最小的移动通信业者中国电信 (China Telecom)，也公布其上半年净利下滑8.3%，由去年的96.2亿人民币(15.2亿美元)来到88.1亿人民币(13.9亿美元)；同时间营收则 增加14.8%，来到1,380.2亿人民币(218亿美元)。 中国电信供应商们利润与营收在上半年出现下滑，让财经分析师们始料未及；这种情况究竟是什么因素造成的？ 第一个就是中国三大移动通信供应商──中国移动、中国联通(China Unicom)与中国电信──之间的价格战，在过去半年来热度逐渐升高；此外，给予消费者的手机合约补贴已压缩到三家的利润。开始提供iPhone势必再让中国电信供应商们增加成本；中国电信日前就明确表示，iPhone所带来的市场推广开支，会拖累到利润表现。 中国移动目前也不提供iPhone，因为Apple没生产支持TD-SCDMA标准的iPhone；不过，为了与中国联通、中国电信竞争，中国移动表示将在下半年提高手机合约补贴。中国移动首席财务官薛涛海表示，该公司今年上半年的手机补贴总金额为120亿人民币(19亿美元)，不过该公司全年度补贴预算将由原先的210亿人民币(33.2亿美元)增加至260亿人民币(41亿美元)。 各家电信供应商争相提供手机补贴的动机，就是希望尽可能吸引更多的高阶客户，好让他们在服务项目上花更多钱。那么，目前在中国到底有多少3G用户？ 中国电信表示，该公司截至今年6月的行动用户总数为1.4418亿，其中3G用户为5,096万人，占据35%。中国联通则表示，其3G用户占据总用户数的 比例略高于25%。至于中国移动，该公司号称其移动通信用户总数为6.8亿，其中有10%是高资费3G用户；也就是说，中国移动大多数用户还是使用2G网路，上半年的ARPU约为67元人民币(11美元)。 中国移动会找到说服Apple生产TD-SCDMA标准iPhone的方法吗？有人认为会，因为高通已经准备好在今年稍晚推出TD-SCDMA手机芯片组；但也可能不会，因为有业界消息指出，对计划在2013年推出TD-LTE手机的中国移动来说，那并不是最有利的策略。 高通的竞争对手Marvell正将资源投注在针对中国市场的TD-LTE调制解调器市场，该公司手机芯片产品副总裁Ivan Lee最近接受EETimes美国版编辑访问时透露，中国移动已经提出其TD-LTE产品的规格需求，该手机产品将支持中国境内的TD-SCDMA与 GSM双频，也就是需要TD-LTE调制解调器芯片能在4G与FDD网络漫游的能力，而非3G与WCDMA。 Ivan Lee表示：“我们将在2012年底推出TD-LTE调制解调器芯片，新组件将会符合中国移动开出的所有规格需求。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文： Yoshida in China: Does China Mobile need iPhone?，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Yoshida in China: Does China Mobile need iPhone? Junko Yoshida China’s telecom market is showing signs of distress. Wireless carriers in China are beginning to see their growing handset subsidies to customers eating into profits, while they struggle to increase their ARPU (average revenue per user). In parallel, the world is watching intently if China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier based on number of subscribers, might soon start carrying Apple’s iPhones. Qualcomm is rumored to be unveiling a TD-SCDMA (China’s home-grown 3G standard) chipset later this year. The timing for the emergence of a TD-SCDMA-based iPhone, however, is controversial, since China Mobile is reportedly planning to go whole hog with the rollout of TD-LTE (4G) handsets in 2013. Last week, China Mobile posted a 0.9 percent drop in first-half earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to 123 billion yuan ($19.4 billion). On Wednesday (Aug. 22nd), China Telecom, the smallest wireless operator in China, posted an 8.3 percent drop in first-half net profit. Its first-half net profit was 8.81 billion yuan ($1.39 billion), down from 9.62 billion yuan ($1.52 billion) a year earlier. Revenue rose 14.8 percent to 138.02 billion yuan ($21.8 billion) in the period. A decline in the telecoms’ profits and earnings in China isn’t exactly what financial analysts were expecting in the first half of the year. What factors are contributing to this disturbing trend? First, price competition among China’s wireless operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom -- has been heating up over the last six months. Moreover, handset subsidies have been pressuring all three carriers' ARPU. Serving iPhones does incur costs for Chinese carriers. China Telecom Wednesday explicitly said in a statement that marketing expenses for the iPhone would weigh on profitability. China Mobile at this point does not carry iPhones, because Apple does not make iPhones with TD-SCDMA, a standard mandated by China Mobile. Nonetheless, in order to compete with China Unicom and China Telecom, China Mobile said it would increase its handset subsidies in the second half of the year. More specifically, China Mobile’s CFO Xue Taohai said it spent 12 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) on handset subsidies in the first half of the year, but that it would raise full-year subsidies to 26 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) from an initial plan for 21 billion yuan ($3.32 billion). The goal everyone is gunning for is to attract as many higher-end customers as possible who will spend more money on services. Battle for 3G subscribers So, exactly, how many mobile users in China have already signed for 3G? China Telecom Wednesday said it has 144.18 million mobile subscribers as of June, including 50.96 million 3G subscribers. That means 35 percent of its subscribers are already using 3G. China Unicom says that a little over 25 percent of its subscribers have 3G contracts. On the other hand, China Mobile which claims to have more than 680 million mobile phone users only has 10 percent of its subscribers using higher-revenue, 3G technology. In other words, most of China Mobile’s subscribers are using 2G, contributing to 4.3 percent slide in the company’s ARPU in the first half of the year to 67 yuan ($11). iPhone factor Will China Mobile find a way to persuade Apple to make TD-SCDMA-compatible iPhones? Some say yes, as Qualcomm is reportedly getting ready with TD-SCDMA chipset slated for launch later this year. Or maybe not. A few observers say it may not be in the best interest of China Mobile, which plans to promote TD-LTE handsets in 2013. Marvell Technology, a competitor to Qualcomm, is betting the farm on a TD-LTE modem for the Chinese market. In a recent interview with EE Times, Ivan Lee, vice president of mobile products at Marvell said that China Mobile recently announced the requirements for their TD-LTE. The world’s largest mobile operator’s specification says it needs to be able to operate on TD-SCDMA and GSM inside China. It requires the TD-LTE modem to offer roaming capability on 4G and FDD, not to mention 3G and WCDMA. During the interview, Lee said, “We’ll have a TD-LTE modem by the end of 2012, which meets all the requirements set forth by China Mobile.”