在微软(Microsoft) 新操作系统Windows 8发表前夕，一位资深的PC产业界专家 Joshua Shapiro 表示，微软将开始推动使用字节码直译器(interpreter)为其 Win 8 撰写的应用程序，而非使用x86编译器，而这意味着新操作系统将终结传统PC时代，以及一些仅专注于制造PC的OEM厂商。
Windows 8本质上是两种环境──可执行针对x86架构所写之应用程序的传统Windows 操作系统，以及之前称之为 Metro 的全新 run-time 环境，可针对x86或ARM处理器直译字节码。
Shapiro 声称，随着时间的推移，微软将逐渐淡出传统PC和针对x86架构编译的应用程序，而更加侧重在类似iPad的平板电脑上，如该公司的 Surface 及其直译式应用程序。转而支持类似iPad的平板电脑，如微软的Surface和解释应用程序。这有点类似当初推动 Windows 并逐步舍弃 DOS 的过程。
“PC产业在传统计算机领域的投资可说是盘根错节，”Shapiro说，他曾在IBM工作14年，现在是专业的顾问和企业家。“基本上，微软是藉由 Metro和 Windows 8 逐步远离传统PC，简单来说就是任它自生自灭，”他表示。
PC制造商在未来几年内将会发现，他们原本就已经微薄的利润，将因为PC软件领域的缺乏投资而消失殆尽。他接着指出，“你已经可以看到惠普和戴尔的例子了，他们都在逃离PC。”
“在我看来，你必须去刺激PC软件开发，但今天只有计算机游戏玩家才这样做，他们也是唯一针对传统PC不断开发软件的一群，”Shapiro说。“因为没有好处，所以也没有人愿意再投下资金去开发支持传统PC的软件，他们现在大多只支持各式各样的新型应用程序开发。”
Windows 8或遭多数企业用户冷落
曾几何时，微软每次发布新的Windows操作系统，对很多企业的科技部门来说是一件大事。但这种情况已不复存在。微软周五举行的新的Windows 8操作系统发布活动，对绝大多数企业来说很可能无足轻重，而很多专家也表示，大量企业或许永远不会采用这一新系统。
Windows 8看起来似乎对每个人都有吸引之处：触屏功能可满足平板电脑爱好者需求，新的用户界面迎合年轻人口味，多种不同版本使其与传统个人电脑（PC）软件兼容。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：企业客户为何漠不关心？
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不过很多企业却表示，并没有足够的理由让他们部署这一系统。确实，大量企业甚至都未将Windows XP升级为Windows 7。
“坦白地说，Windows 8更多是一个消费者平台而非企业平台，所以从企业角度而言，当前（升级）并无任何意义。我所看到的是，Windows 8并未带来新的企业功能，”美国银行家协会风险管理政策负责人Doug Johnson表示。该协会成员是科技产品采购主力之一。
在过去20年中的绝大部分时间里，这种对新Windows系统的评论可能引发微软总部的恐慌。但如今不会了。Windows 8的成败将取决于消费市场的反应。
这并不意味着，微软高管公开表示将放弃他们新版旗舰产品对企业客户的拓展。
“消费者与企业之间的界限正变得模糊，”微软企业及合作夥伴集团负责人Ron Markezich说道。“企业客户期待着Windows 8，因为他们不需要在平板电脑和传统PC间做妥协。”
但微软的主要目标是，向外界展示其能够掌控由苹果和谷歌开创的触控优化、便携式电子产品。微软色彩丰富、激情洋溢的Windows 8广告，瞄准了年轻和崇尚自由的群体；而其Surface平板电脑也定位为消费设备。
企业客户漠不关心
尽管Windows 8测试版已经发布逾一年时间，企业客户对其依然漠不关心。
大众汽车去年在公司6万台PC上部署了Windows 7，眼下并不打算很快再次进行大规模升级。
大众IT部门主管Martin Eickhoff称，他的团队“对于评估新的平板电脑功能很兴奋”，但会等到Windows 8发布之后，以便确认可能带来的好处。
而这并不反常，因为企业在采用某个新系统之前一般会测试12-18个月，也就是说，企业对大多数版本Windows系统的部署通常发生在产品发布后的2-3年后。微软不受欢迎的Windows Vista不属此列。
然而这一次，即便上述情景都可能不会出现。
科技研究公司Gartner分析师Michael Silver认为，在Windows 8的生命周期内，其部署率可能非常低。他说：“我们认为，90%的大型企业将不会大范围部署Windows 8，在最好的时候，大型企业可能仅有20%的PC使用Windows 8。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译： Joy Teng
参考英文原文：Entrepreneur says Win 8 marks end of PCs，by Rick Merritt
相关阅读：
• 科技巨头们的第三季财报关键词：疲弱、下滑、亏损
• PC最好的时光逝去，英特尔壮士迟暮
• Windows 8能助PC市场屹立不倒吗？nfpesmc
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Entrepreneur says Win 8 marks end of PCs
Rick Merritt
SAN JOSE, Calif. – On the eve of the release of Windows 8, a veteran PC executive claims the new operating system marks the beginning of the end for PCs and the OEMs who make them.
Still, Joshua Shapiro said he has a technique to enable mass customization of software loads on PCs he says could help revive the platform.
Windows 8 includes essentially two environments—the traditional Windows operating system that runs apps complied for the x86 and a new run-time environment formerly called Metro that interprets byte codes for either x86 or ARM processors.
Shapiro claims over time Microsoft will deemphasize traditional desktops and their compiled x86 apps in favor of iPad-like tablets like Microsoft Surface and their interpreted apps. The move parallels how Windows initially included then later discarded DOS.
“Everyone invested in [traditional PCs] is screwed,” said Shapiro, who spent 14 years at IBM before becoming a consultant and entrepreneur. “With Metro and Windows 8, Microsoft is essentially walking away from the PC and leaving it to die,” he said.
Companies who make PCs will see their already thin margins wither away over the next few years from a lack of investment in PC software, he argued. “You can already see the train wreck in HP and Dell—rather than defending the PC, they are running away from it,” he said.
“It’s my contention you need to stimulate PC software development, but the only group doing that today is the computer gamers—they have the only software that comes close to stressing a PC,” said Shapiro. “Nobody wants to develop for the PC anymore because there is no money in it, and VCs won’t support PC software startups because they only support apps now,” he said.
PC salvage?
Shapiro believes his company, Imbue, could help revive the PC software industry. Imbue has a patented method for quickly loading software on PCs that he claimed enables OEMs to offer custom software images to consumers.
Unbundling software
OEMs currently load a handful of standard software bundles on PCs, often including programs of marginal use to consumers that software developers pay OEMs to include. Shapiro claims using his software, OEMs could offer a unique service to download exactly what a consumer chooses from a vast and open PC app store.
The Imbue process uses a technique of erasing the unwanted software from a master image by erasing its metadata. The technique on which the company has five granted and 12 pending patents is more than an order of magnitude faster than the current method OEMs use for loading each program sequentially.
“There’s a tremendous amount of convenience to having the desired software pre-loaded and you can have this done economically now,” Shapiro said. “I was in a major manufacturing facility last month, and depending on the model and configuration, [loading software] takes two to four hours typically and six to10 hours for some special configurations."
Shapiro declined to share commercial terms of licensing Imbue's technology. “We are initially looking for a single large entity that would benefit by having and exclusive on this process, but I would consider an alternative of working with a consortium,” he said.
责编：Quentin
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