向右滑动:上一篇 向左滑动:下一篇 我知道了

自作孽太深,诺基亚还能抢救回来吗?

诺基亚没救了吗?不是的,你要说我天真或是拒绝承认都没关系,但我就是还没准备好接受一个只有三星与苹果独大的智能手机市场。别误会,我不是要在这里呼吁谁出手拯救诺基亚,这家公司会走到今天这个地步,完全是自作自受。回顾过去,诺基亚的管理高层冠冕堂皇地在以下三件事情上搞砸了……

诺基亚(Nokia)没救了吗?不是的,你要说我天真或是拒绝承认都没关系,但我就是还没准备好接受一个只有三星(Samsung)与苹果(Apple)两家品牌独大的智能手机市场“新常态”。 看着那两大品牌主导着半导体市场中唯一具备有意义成长率的领域,实在是太痛苦;它们排除了高通(Qualcomm)与三星以外、几乎其它所有调制解调器芯片以及应用处理器供货商。而我想不只是我一个人有这样的感觉。 别误会,我不是要在这里呼吁谁出手拯救诺基亚;这家公司会走到今天这个地步,完全是自作自受。回顾过去,诺基亚的管理高层冠冕堂皇地在以下三件事情上搞砸了: 1. 执着于Symbian太长时间; 2. 输了在中国市场上的战争; 3. 没有选择在自家智能手机上采用Android操作系统。 有许多产业专家将诺基亚的失败归咎于该公司太晚掌握智能手机热潮,认为该公司在智能手机领域缺乏表现,是失败的主因;但我不同意这种说法。 在智能手机变成市场主流之前,诺基亚对功能手机市场的掌控能力已经开始动摇,该公司在花费大量工程资源针对全球市场推出一系列功能手机的同时,很遗憾地错失了两个关键商机:其一是双卡双待手机,其二是在中国推广Symbian手机。 所谓的双卡双待手机就是能同时放进两张SIM卡的机种,诺基亚花了几乎十年的时间才赶上这个潮流;支持双插卡基本上就是让终端用户能不必携带两支手机、就能同时使用两个门号,让消费者能针对不同特定应用目的选择不同的服务供应商或通话、短信、移动上网月租方案。

诺基亚姗姗来迟的双卡双待手机系列
诺基亚姗姗来迟的双卡双待手机系列
Source:Nokia.comZXkesmc

诺基亚与移动通信业者的关系紧密,却让该公司失去洞察力;该公司对大型移动通信业者的忠诚放错了地方,以至于没搭上双卡双待手机的热潮──因为那些通信服务业者当然都希望消费者只采用他们的网络。 本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载 本文下一页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第1页:诺基亚高层在三件事情上搞砸了• 第2页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第3页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?• 第4页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第5页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧

相关阅读:
回应欧盟“倾销说”:华为在芬兰设立研发中心
诺基亚很满意:芬兰总部大楼卖了2.23亿美元
2013年智能手机市场Top 10排名将大幅变动ZXkesmc

{pagination} 至于没能在中国市场大力推广Symbian手机,也是诺基亚错失的另一个商机;据了解,在Android平台席卷全球之前,中国手机业者曾经有一度对Symbian平台有大量需求,但Symbian (也就是Nokia)对这个平台的开放与否实在太晚决定、开放程度也太低。 而在中国手机业者可能接受Symbian的那时候,其实Symbian内部已经没有足够的工程人才,能将该平台大力推进中国智能手机产业生态系统;后来Symbian剩下的一些人也被Accenture所收购。 除了错过以上两个商机,诺基亚决定在智能手机产品与微软(Microsoft)结盟的策略,也大失人心。但诺基亚真正的罪过不在于与微软联手,而是该公司一直顽固地不愿承认Android平台之崛起。

诺基亚与微软之间这种诡异的牢固“友谊”让很多人不解
诺基亚与微软之间这种诡异的牢固“友谊”让很多人不解
ZXkesmc

虽然产业观察家明白微软对诺基亚有很大影响力(在2010年取代诺基亚前任首席执行官Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo的,就是挖角自微软的Stephen Elop),但他们可能无法理解诺基亚是如何忽视了Android。这看来像是诺基亚高层的蓄意举动,就是要完全无视Android不可挡的潮流。 有一个来自手机芯片领导厂商的工程部门主管说:“我就是不懂为何诺基亚不开发Android手机──这明明可以跟微软的Windows Phone手机并行。” 本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载 本文下一页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?
• 第1页:诺基亚高层在三件事情上搞砸了• 第2页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第3页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?• 第4页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第5页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧

相关阅读:
回应欧盟“倾销说”:华为在芬兰设立研发中心
诺基亚很满意:芬兰总部大楼卖了2.23亿美元
2013年智能手机市场Top 10排名将大幅变动ZXkesmc

{pagination} 诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗? 市场不断有传言指出,诺基亚会在入门或中阶智能手机市场放弃采用微软的Windows Phone平台,寻找其它替代操作系统来生产中低阶智能手机。 但 有报导引述匿名台湾供应链消息来源指出,诺基亚应会在2013年继续释出Windows Phone 7.5手机订单给台湾代工业者,这意味着诺基亚会在明年继续固守Windows Phone 7.5平台,并未打算将针对新兴市场的入门等级手机升级至Windows Phone 8。

诺基亚的硬件工艺有目共睹,其实期待他与Android牵手的粉丝也不在少数
诺基亚的硬件工艺有目共睹,其实期待他与Android牵手的粉丝也不在少数
ZXkesmc

总之,目前没有明确证据显示诺基亚已经着手开发Android产品;但无论如何,我认为,涉足Android平台是诺基亚面对现实该采取的第一个步骤。至于诺基亚该采取的第二个步骤,是重新设定对功能手机市场的期待。 本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载 本文下一页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第1页:诺基亚高层在三件事情上搞砸了• 第2页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第3页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?• 第4页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第5页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧

相关阅读:
回应欧盟“倾销说”:华为在芬兰设立研发中心
诺基亚很满意:芬兰总部大楼卖了2.23亿美元
2013年智能手机市场Top 10排名将大幅变动ZXkesmc

{pagination} 根据市场研究机构IDC的最新报告预测,全球手机市场规模在 2012年将比2011年成长1.4%,是过去三年来的最低水准,但却预期智能手机出货量将在这个圣诞采购季创新高纪录。没错,在智能手机销售量持续 成长的同时,功能手机数量将逐渐减少;但诺基亚与少数产业专家似乎认为,功能手机能让诺基亚扭转败局,甚至让该公司走上复兴之路。 最近诺基亚发表了Nokia 206与205系列手机,自诩为“功能手机的重塑”。但仔细检视,叫它们“功能手机”好象不太对,无论是206或205能让使用者实时联机Facebook,也能收发电子邮件,还能下载诺基亚线上商店“超过千种的免费/付费游戏与应用程序”。

Nokia 206(左)与205(右)系列手机
Nokia 206(左)与205(右)系列手机
ZXkesmc

此外这两款手机配备的摄像头能自动将拍摄的照片档案大小调整到700KB,以便使用者分享或是上传上网。唯一让它们像是“非智能手机”的地方,是拥有传统的手机实体按键,以及仅2.4寸的屏幕;而这两款手机都有单卡或双卡的机型选择。 Google 的Google Play商店以及苹果的线上商店,目前分别可提供67万5,000与70万种的应用程序;诺基亚是不是把珍贵的资源浪费在建构自家不太受瞩目的线上商店上?所有那些诺基亚功能手机的独特优点,难道不能移植到该公司未来的Android手机上? 也许诺基亚视中阶手机市场为未来成长动力的思路正确,但如果是这样,为何不用中阶智能手机来进军该市场,而是用诺基亚特有的功能手机? 本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载 本文下一页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧
• 第1页:诺基亚高层在三件事情上搞砸了• 第2页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第3页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?• 第4页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第5页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧

相关阅读:
回应欧盟“倾销说”:华为在芬兰设立研发中心
诺基亚很满意:芬兰总部大楼卖了2.23亿美元
2013年智能手机市场Top 10排名将大幅变动ZXkesmc

{pagination} 中国市场也是目前诺基亚面临的一个难题;没有与苹果或三星同等的品牌号召力,诺基亚无法期望中国消费者愿意花更多钱选择该公司的功能手机产品,而舍弃HTC、联想(Lenovo)、华为(Huawei)或中兴(ZTE)等品牌的平价Android智能手机。 幸好,日前中国移动(China Mobile)所发表的诺基亚Lumia 920T──中国首款支持TD-SCDMA标准的Windows平台手机,带来了一线希望。诺基亚还是与全球各大移动通信服务业者维持紧密关系,能与拥有 近7亿用户的中国移动联手,就是连苹果也做不到的。 虽然还不能算是一记妙招,至少诺基亚在这件事上比苹果领先了近一年(据了解,苹果与中国移动可能会在2013下半年合作)。现在诺基亚有一个很好的机会,能藉由全球最大移动通信业者抓住成长中的中国市场商机,如果掌握得好,该公司可望向复苏踏出第一步。 编译:Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载 参考英文原文:Too late to save Nokia?,by Junko Yoshida
• 第1页:诺基亚高层在三件事情上搞砸了• 第2页:不在中国推Symbian手机,错失商机
• 第3页:诺基亚会采用其它手机操作系统吗?• 第4页:功能手机能让诺基亚复兴吗?
• 第5页:与拥有近7亿用户的中国移动联手吧

相关阅读:
回应欧盟“倾销说”:华为在芬兰设立研发中心
诺基亚很满意:芬兰总部大楼卖了2.23亿美元
2013年智能手机市场Top 10排名将大幅变动ZXkesmc

{pagination} Yoshida in NY: Too late to save Nokia? Junko Yoshida Nokia's management screwed up royally on several fronts. But it's not too late to save the company. It isn't. Call me naive or in denial, but I’m not prepared to accept a “new normal,” where there exist only two big design sockets–Samsung’s and Apple’s–for the smartphone market. It’s just too painful to watch these two handset giants–through their dominance in the only market with meaningful growth for semiconductors–shut out practically every chip company who designs modems and apps processors, except for Qualcomm and Samsung. I suspect I’m not alone in this feeling. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not here calling for a Nokia bailout. Nokia’s where it is today through Nokia’s own doing. Looking back, Nokia’s management screwed up royally on three fronts: 1) clinging to Symbian for too long; 2) losing the battle in China; and 3) not choosing Android as an operating system for the company's smartphones. Many pundits pin Nokia’s failure on the company having been too slow to accept the emergence of smartphones. They believe Nokia’s lack of presence in smartphones has triggered its downfall. I disagree. Missed opportunities Nokia’s grip on the feature phone market had begun sliding way before smartphones became mainstream. While spending a lot of engineering resources perfecting a variety of feature phones for the global market, Nokia unfortunately missed the cues for two key opportunities. One was the advent of the dual SIM mobile phone, designed to hold two SIM cards. It took Nokia almost a decade before fully embracing this trend. Dual-SIM operation essentially enables mobile phone users to use two services without carrying two phones. Using multiple SIM cards allows a user to take advantage of different pricing plans for calls and text messages to certain destinations, as well as mobile data usage. Nokia’s close relationship with mobile carriers, however, blurred Nokia’s vision. It stayed off the dual SIM bandwagon out of misplaced loyalty to large operators, who preferred customers to use one network exclusively. “Symbian in China” was another missed opportunity for Nokia. Before Android took the world by storm, there was reportedly a groundswell of demand for Symbian-based phones among handset vendors in China. But the decision by Symbian (and by Nokia) to make Symbian an open source operating system was too little, too late. By the time Chinese OEMs could have embraced Symbian, there wasn’t enough engineering talent left at Symbian to make serious inroads into the China’s smartphone ecosystem. Meanwhile, what’s left of Symbian was later acquired by Accenture. Unpopular decision Then, Nokia made the unpopular decision of going with Microsoft for its smartphone strategy. Nokia’s sin, however, wasn’t in partnering with Microsoft. Rather, it was its stubbornness in not acknowledging the rising tide of Android. Although industry observers understood Microsoft’s powerful influence on Nokia (Stephen Elop who replaced Nokia’s previous CEO, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, in 2010 came from Microsoft), they could not comprehend how Nokia could possibly ignore Android. It seemed almost a willful act by Nokia’s management to miss Android’s unmistakable momentum so completely. One engineering executive working for a leading mobile chip company said, "I just don’t understand why Nokia couldn’t develop Android phones--even in parallel with Microsoft’s Windows phones." Looking for an alternative platform? There have been persistent rumors, however, that Nokia might be ditching Microsoft’s Windows Phone at least for entry to the mid-level smartphone market, while it looks for an alternative platform in the low-end smartphone market segment. Taiwan’s Digitimes recently quoted an unnamed source from Taiwan-based supply chain makers saying that Nokia is expected to continue to release orders for Windows Phone 7.5 handsets to Taiwan-based ODM makers in 2013. The point is that Nokia appears to be sticking to Windows Phone 7.5 through next year, instead of upgrading its entry-level feature phones to Windows Phone 8 in the emerging market. At this point, however, there is no hard evidence indicating that Nokia is actually working to develop Android handsets. Three steps Nonetheless, dabbling in Android, in my opinion, is at least the first step Nokia could take to accept reality. A second step Nokia must take is to re-set its expectations for the future of its feature phone market. According to International Data Corp.’s latest report, the worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to grow 1.4 percent this year compared with 2011, the lowest annual growth rate in three years despite a projected record number of smartphone shipments in the high-volume holiday season. Make no mistake. While smartphones continue to rise, sales of feature phones are shrinking. But Nokia and a few other industry pundits seem to believe that Nokia’s feature phones could save the day for Nokia–or at least put Nokia back on the recovery path. In recent weeks, Nokia released the Nokia 206 and 205 handsets (shown left). Nokia is hailing this move as “reinventing the feature phones.” Upon closer examination, calling these “feature phones” seems like a misnomer. Both 205 and 206 allow users to link instantly to Facebook, as well as e-mail. The phones allow downloads of “1000s of free and paid games and apps” in the Nokia Store, according to Nokia. A camera integrated into each phone will automatically resize pictures to around 700KB for easy sharing and posting. The only things that make these phones look like non-smartphones are a traditional keypad and a 2.4-inch screen. Both phones come in single and dual-SIM varieties. But with Google’s Google Play store today offering 675,000 applications and Apple 700,000 apps, is Nokia wasting precious resources on its own, less impressive Nokia Store? Couldn’t all the unique features Nokia has designed into its feature phones be brought over to Nokia’s future Android phones? Nokia may be right thinking that the future for growth is in entry to the mid-level market. If so, why not address that market with entry-level smartphones, instead of Nokia’s proprietary feature phones? China remains the last but not least problem Nokia faces today. Without brand appeal equivalent to that of Apple or Samsung, Nokia can’t expect Chinese consumers to shell out more for its feature phones than low-cost Android smartphones made by HTC, Renovo, Huawei or ZTE. However, the announcement this week that China Mobile is launching Nokia’s Lumia 920T --the first TD-SCDMA Windows phone in China–offers a glimmer of hope. Nokia still has close relationship with leading carriers in the world. A partnership with China Mobile – which has close to 700 million subscribers – is one thing Apple has not been able to pull off. It’s not a slam dunk, but Nokia may have close to a one-year lead over Apple (Apple and China Mobile might come to a deal in the second half of 2013). For now, Nokia has a good chance to leverage the growing market the world’s largest mobile carrier offers in China. If it seizes the opportunity, Nokia could be making its first baby steps toward recovery.
责编:Quentin
本文为国际电子商情原创文章,未经授权禁止转载。请尊重知识产权,违者本司保留追究责任的权利。
Junko Yoshida
ASPENCORE全球联席总编辑,首席国际特派记者。曾任把口记者(beat reporter)和EE Times主编的Junko Yoshida现在把更多时间用来报道全球电子行业,尤其关注中国。 她的关注重点一直是新兴技术和商业模式,新一代消费电子产品往往诞生于此。 她现在正在增加对中国半导体制造商的报道,撰写关于晶圆厂和无晶圆厂制造商的规划。 此外,她还为EE Times的Designlines栏目提供汽车、物联网和无线/网络服务相关内容。 自1990年以来,她一直在为EE Times提供内容。
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