一位资深产业观察家指出，想要赢得下一回合的智能手机处理器大战，关键将会是整合度与低成本，但现在看来英特尔(Intel)并没有准备好。
市场研究机构The Linley Group 首席分析师Linley Gwennap表示，在售价350美元以上的手机市场成长率预期将仅有6%的同时，350美元以下平价智能手机的成长率预期可达到69%。在此一趋势下，采用应用处理器整合机频方案的手机市占率，估计将由2012年时的50%在2016年成长至72%。
至于采用独立型应用处理器的手机市占率则估计在2012至2016年之间由30%缩减为14%，而且该类装置大多数是由三星(Samsung)所制造。
Gwennap预期，未来手机市场的成长主力是低阶产品
1vuesmc
Gwennap指出，因为手机市场的成长主要来自于200美元以下的产品，因此价格竞争将会越来越激烈：“英特尔与Nvidia都锁定高阶手机市场，但该市场的成长空间不大，他们必须从市场龙头高通(Qualcomm)手中抢市占率，那并不容易。”他认为，英特尔目前的芯片跟竞争对手的差不多，因此不太有机会提高市占率。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
第2页：英特尔在基频与处理器的整合上还稍嫌落后
第3页：手机芯片设计的下一步，就是将Wi-Fi功能与应用处理器整合
相关阅读：
• 英特尔CEO交接日迈向倒计时，旧人回归呼声高
• 英特尔推出针对服务器和Thunderbolt的多款新芯片
• 提升移动产业供应链不能只靠芯片厂商1vuesmc
{pagination}
“我们还在等待英特尔推出首款22纳米制程智能手机芯片，那应该有助于该公司突破僵局；”Gwennap表示：“但仅有22纳米制程也无法让他们成为芯片性能的领先者。”他指出，英特尔的 FinFET 制程技术约比其它芯片制造商领先两年左右。
“一个全新的微架构(micro-architecture)可能会有帮助，但英特尔需要再加把劲；”Gwennap表示：“现在他们只是提供跟其它市场领导厂商一样的东西，并没有特别突出，而且他们在基频与处理器的整合上还稍嫌落后──甚至Nvidia的Tegra4都在该方面领先英特尔。”
整合型芯片的受欢迎程度越来越高，独立行应用处理器则逐渐式微
1vuesmc
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
第3页：手机芯片设计的下一步，就是将Wi-Fi功能与应用处理器整合
相关阅读：
• 英特尔CEO交接日迈向倒计时，旧人回归呼声高
• 英特尔推出针对服务器和Thunderbolt的多款新芯片
• 提升移动产业供应链不能只靠芯片厂商1vuesmc
{pagination}
Gwennap 认为，手机芯片设计的下一步，就是将Wi-Fi功能与应用处理器整合；目前高通已经做到了，联发科(MediaTek)则表示将几个月内将发表该类产品， 此外博通(Broadcom)、美满(Marvell)与三星(Samsung)也透露将在下一代手机芯片整合Wi-Fi功能。
目前高通在应用处理器市场的占有率达到33%左右，其后为三星、市占率约17%；Gwennap表示，手机厂商客制化的 ASIC 市占率已经降到18%左右，包括诺基亚(Nokia)等都开始采用高通的芯片。此外，应用处理器朝多核心发展也是一大趋势，特别是四核心芯片。
4核心应用处理器成市场主流
1vuesmc
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Judith Cheng
参考英文原文：Cheap smartphone boom bodes ill for Intel，by Rick Merritt
相关阅读：
• 英特尔CEO交接日迈向倒计时，旧人回归呼声高
• 英特尔推出针对服务器和Thunderbolt的多款新芯片
• 提升移动产业供应链不能只靠芯片厂商1vuesmc
{pagination}
Cheap smartphone boom bodes ill for Intel
Rick Merritt
Intel is not well poised for the battle ahead in smartphones costing less than $350, expected to drive most of the sector’s growth, said a market watcher. SAN JOSE, Calif. – The keys to success for the next round of smartphone processors will be integration and low cost, and Intel is not well poised for the battle, according to a keynote address from a veteran market watcher.
The market for handsets selling for more than $350 will grow just six percent while the market for sub-$350 smartphones will expand at a roaring 69 percent, predicted Linley Gwennap, principal analyst of The Linley Group (Mountain View, Calif.) at an annual mobile event here.
In a related trend, the share of handsets using applications processors with integrated basebands will expand from 50 to 72 percent from 2012 to 2016. Meanwhile, the market for standalone apps processors will fall from 30 to 14 percent over that period, with many of the devices made by Samsung.
Click on image to enlarge.
The growth ahead in smartphones is at the low-end, Gwennap predicts.
Cost competition will be keen because most of the growth will be in sub-$200 handsets, Gwennap said. "Intel and Nvidia are focused on the high end, but there's not a lot of market growth there so they will have to claw back share from [market leader] Qualcomm which will be tough," he said.
Intel ICs not special
Intel's current chips aren't "any better than what others offer today," making share gains unlikely said Gwennap. "We are waiting for Intel's first 22nm smartphone part which should help them out, but just 22nm alone won't put them into a performance leadership," he said, noting the FinFET process Intel pioneered as much as two years ahead of other chip makers.
"A new micro-architecture can help, but they need to amp up their game," said Gwennap. "Today they are just delivering what the other market leaders are delivering and not standing out, and they are behind in integrating the baseband and processor-- even Nvidia with Tegra 4 is moving in that direction," he added.
The next big step is bringing Wi-Fi into the apps processor, something Qualcomm has already done and Mediatek announced it will do in a few months. Broadcom, Marvell and Samsung are also pointed to roll Wi-Fi into their next generation chips, he noted.
Click on image to enlarge.
Integrated chips are on the rise as standalone apps processors fade.
Qualcomm is rising to about 33 percent share in apps processors, followed by Samsung which is edging toward 17 percent, according to Gwennap. In house ASICs are declining to about 18 percent as handset makers such as Nokia adopt Qualcomm chips, he said.
Quad core comes on fast
Click on image to enlarge.
Multicore apps processors are on the rise, especially quad-core chips, Gwennap predicts.
责编：Quentin
扫码分享到好友
