微软+诺基亚，也不会变成另一颗“苹果”

砸下70亿美元收购诺基亚 (Nokia) 手机部门的微软 (Microsoft)已经完成了转型，成为有硬体也有软体、可能会吓跑所有潜在合作伙伴的“黑白郎君”。现在还会有谁愿意生产Windows Phone平台产品？那些极少数仍在积极想推出Windows平板的厂商，请务必注意已浮现的厄运预言。 在新的手机市场，微软的目标是模仿苹果 (Apple)；而且微软想单打独斗，以垂直整合业者的模式来打造手机新产品。但问题在于，微软并不像苹果拥有文化一致、对整合性产品具备热情的整合团队。 我很佩服微软在建立坚强的Xbox晶片设计团队方面的好表现，但该团队与高通(Qualcomm)的Snapdragon晶片或三星(Samsung)的Exynos晶片设计团队比较，还是有一段差距。因此我对于微软的垂直整合手机团队，仍抱持怀疑态度。 显然，微软目前处境艰难； Android 阵营与苹果的iOS 在新手机市场居领导地位， Windows 平台挣扎求生，试图打败BlackBerry以取得与“双强”距离有点遥远的老三位置。但收购诺基亚，恐怕也无法让微软的Windows Phone取得更多吸引力。 从微软转任诺基亚执行长的Stephen Elop已将公司的未来押注在成为Windows Phone产品的主要制造商；无论那值不值得，他已经如愿。 微软对于从笔记本电脑与台式电脑重复获取大量利润有很丰富的经验，该公司能让其硬体合作伙伴持续锁定商用产品；尽管成长前景黯淡，这种模式仍将持续发挥效用。在行动时代，另一个大商机是云端，但这部分也面临来自Linux平台的威胁。 微软这家Windows巨擘还有一段很长的路要走，除了从传统的PC领域获利，也能从游戏机、网路服务赚一些钱；但该公司不会成为下一个苹果，只会是下一个诺基亚。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：Microsoft Is Not the New Apple，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} Microsoft Is Not the New Apple Rick Merritt, SiliconValley Bureau Chief With its $7 billion bid for Nokia's cellphone business, Microsoft has completed its transformation into Janus, a two-faced hardware/software giant that should scare away any potential partner. Why would anyone else ever want to make a Windows Phone now? The hearty few still cranking out Windows tablets must see the writing on the wall. In the new mobile markets, Microsoft aims to ape Apple. It wants to go it alone as the vertically integrated company creating new mobile products. There's just one problem. Unlike Apple, it does not have an integrated team with an identity, history, and passion for integrated products. I give Microsoft credit for its good work establishing a solid SoC team for the Xbox. But that group has a huge chasm to cross to ever compete with Qualcomm's Snapdragon or Samsung's Exynos. So I question the real advantage of a vertically integrated mobile group. Clearly, Microsoft is in a tough spot. Android and Apple's iOS dominate the new mobile markets. Windows struggles for relevance, trying to beat BlackBerry for a distant third spot. The acquisition of Nokia will not make its Windows Phone products any more compelling. Stephen Elop, Nokia's turnaround CEO from Microsoft, had already staked that company's future on being the premier maker of Windows Phones. For what it's worth, he got his wish. Microsoft has a long history of reaping the majority of profits from notebooks and desktops, keeping its hardware partners locked into commodity products. That hand will continue to play out amid declining growth prospects. In the mobile era, the other big opportunity is in the cloud, but this is increasingly Linux territory. The Windows giant has a long future ahead of it milking its traditional PC franchise and making some money in game consoles and Web services. But it's not the next Apple. It's just the next Nokia.