自动驾驶车辆只能靠V2X吗？

对大多数的消费者来说，自动驾驶车辆仍然会是未来式；虽然谷歌已经展示了受欢迎的无人驾驶车辆，但那些在媒体上令人惊叹的报导其实是唬人的成分比较多，我们其中有很多人恐怕无法活得够长，能看到自动驾驶车辆满街跑。 对消费者来说，无人驾驶车辆就像是飞行背包那样的科幻产物；但相反的，对汽车产业来说，自动驾驶车辆是真实、急迫且重要的未来。为了让该技术成真，产业界在今日的专心一致、工程资源的投入，以及明智的决策是有必要的，不能等到十年以后。 目前在汽车产业意见分歧的问题是，各种V2X (vehicle to x)服务的程度到底该做到甚么程度──包括车辆对车辆通讯(vehicle to vehicle，V2V)、车辆对基础建设通讯(vehicle to infrastructure，V2I)──才能让未来的全自动驾驶车辆成真？

谷歌自动驾驶车辆
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也就是说，随着智能车辆使用的先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS) 进一步改善，以及LTE等蜂巢式通讯服务普及化，自动驾驶车辆还需要等待未来专用的V2X吗？市场研究机构 Strategy Analytics 的分析师Roger Lanctot 直言，主管机关的法令制定程序至少就要花上8年，再加上要让足够的车辆了解V2X恐怕要花15~20年时间：“基本上，那不会实现。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 第二页：四大因素颠覆2X概念原始蓝图 第三页：抛开LTE谈愿景是个大错误

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{pagination} 四大因素颠覆2X概念原始蓝图 但目前有几个因素可能会大幅改变由汽车产业与政府主管机关在几年前所拟定的V2X概念原始蓝图。首先，横扫汽车产业最大的一个因素就是智能手机；一位 ITS Japan的发言人最近接受EETimes访问时表示：“日本在2007年首度订定V2I计划时，我们根本想象不到智能手机会如此普及。” 此外，谷歌也是因素之一，该公司展示了不须V2X支援的半自动驾驶车辆。“车辆内建的雷射雷达(LIDAR)/ 雷达(RADAR)与摄影机技术并非V2X，”Strategy Analytics另一位汽车产业分析师Ian Riches表示：“该种车辆不进行任何通讯，而是直接独立感测周遭环境的其他车辆以及基础设施。” 另外第三个因素则是布建V2X的成本；对此市场研究机构Juniper Research的分析师Anthony Cox表示，V2X要真正运作需要广泛布建，且须要有高采用率(97%)才会真正有效；到目前为止，很难预测那会多快发生，但可以确定的是还有很长一段路。 Cox指出：“要让V2X技术进驻车辆会是最大的挑战；是有可能强制新车配备V2X技术，但问题是如何让V2X安装在还有好几年寿命的现有车辆上。” 第四个因素则是，除了美国正在考量应用于V2V通讯、运作于5.9GHz、以802.11p标准为基础的专属短距离通讯(Dedicated Short Range Communication，DSRC)技术，市面上还有太多其他可用的技术。对此Strategy Analytics的Lanctot 指出：“有太多替代方案能以感测器、电信或是Wi-Fi为基础的技术，能提供与V2X差不多的性能。” Lanctot补充指出：“最有可能崛起的替代技术是 LTE Advanced──该技术支援模组之间的近距离通讯，不一定要依赖塔台通讯──与 WiFi Direct ，还有嵌入式数据机、以智能手机为基础的技术。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 第三页：抛开LTE谈愿景是个大错误

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{pagination} 抛开LTE谈愿景是个大错误 此外Lanctot也表示，通用汽车(GM)与高通(Qualcomm)都提议将DSRC技术布建于手机，以支援行人侦测，但DSRC纯粹主义者对此类应用嗤之以鼻。将DSRC整合到智能手机里的概念值得玩味，这有可能解决如何改装未配备DSRC车辆的问题。 Strategy Analytics 的Riches则表示：“几乎所有的车辆驾驶人都拥有智能手机，你有看过谁没有的吗？”他认为， LTE 平台的使用，将可以更快地实现车队的V2X功能。有一些批评者担心LTE的延迟问题；Riches也坦承这一点，并指出：“可能会有一些高度时间关键的状况，但这类状况通常用内置传感器来解决会比较好。” 市场研究机构IHS的汽车产业首席分析师Egil Juliussen认为，也许美国的V2X愿景最大错误，就是在计划过程中让移动通信业者缺席；他指出，移动通信业者应该是V2X的必要参与者，因为他们的基地台能与V2I整合，若不利用，V2X建置成本会高出很多。而在欧洲，移动通信产业已经主动参与V2X的试验。 Strategy Analytics 的Riches也认为，美国政府主管机关与汽车产业在V2X的发展上都避开LTE：“这会是一个大错误。”他进一步解释：“如果一些特定的车辆功能一定要连结到某种型态的V2X才能运作，那些功能只能在路网或车队大幅支援该种技术时才能起飞，但那必须要从头开始布建一个新网络。” 产业界究竟将如何解决V2X缺乏可扩展性的问题还不清楚；Riches表示：“这有点疯狂，没有人能告诉我谁要来解决这一切。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考原文： If a Car’s Really 'Autonomous,' Why V2X?，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} For most consumers, self-driving cars are still stuff of the future, despite Google's popular driverless car demo and its breathless coverage in some of the media's more gullible precincts. Many of us may not live long enough to be driven in one of those. Think jetpacks. In contrast, for the automotive industry, the future of autonomous cars is real, urgent, and significant. For this technology, the industry's undivided attention, engineering efforts, and smart decisions are needed today, not 10 years from now. The question splitting the automotive industry now is what level of V2X services -- including both communication between vehicles, V2V (vehicle to vehicle) services, and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) services -- are necessary before the future of fully autonomous cars becomes reality. In other words, as the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) used in smartcars further improves, and cellular services such as LTE proliferate, do autonomous cars even need to wait for the elusive V2X future? Speaking of the lengthy regulatory process necessary to get the mandate done ("a minimum of eight years") and the time it takes ("15 to 20 years") to actually put a sufficient proportion of cars on the road to realize the V2X dream, Roger Lanctot, associate director of Strategy Analytics, bluntly told me, "Bottom line, this is really not going to happen." What changed? Several forces, currently at work, might dramatically change the original V2X concept from the blueprint initially drawn up by the automotive industry and government bureaucrats years ago. First, the biggest force sweeping the automotive industry today is the smartphone. "Back in 2007, when Japan originally mapped out the V2I plan, we've never imagined the proliferation of smartphones in this magnitude," observed a spokesman of ITS Japan in a recent interview with EE Times in Tokyo. There's also the Google factor. Google currently runs its semi-autonomous vehicles with no V2X support. "On-board LIDAR/RADAR/ camera technology is not V2X," stressed Ian Riches, Strategy Analytics' director responsible for global automotive practice. "The vehicle is not communicating with anything, but rather directly sensing its environment independently of every other vehicle and the infrastructure." A third factor is the cost to deploy V2X. Juniper Research's Anthony Cox, in his blog posted earlier this year, wrote: For V2X to really work it needs to be wide-scale and it is only truly effective if the take-up level is high (some suggest over 97%). To date there is little indication of how quickly this will happen but, for sure, it must be a long way off. Getting V2X technology into vehicles will be the biggest challenge. While it is possible that it could be mandated that new vehicles should be furnished with V2X technology, the challenge on how V2X should be installed in existing vehicles will remain for many years to come. Fourth, there are too many other technologies available now, beyond Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) tech operating at the 5.9 GHz frequency based on 802.11p, whose mandate in a future car for V2V communication is being considered in the United States. Strategy Analytics' Lanctot noted, there are "too many alternative paths to delivering comparable performance [to V2X] from sensor-based, telecom-based or WiFi-based technologies." Lanctot added, "Most important likely and emerging alternatives are LTE Advanced -- which includes proximity communication between modules not requiring tower-only communication -- WiFi Direct, and both embedded modems and smartphone-based technologies." Further, "executives at both GM and Qualcomm have proposed handset deployment of DSRC technology, which may even enable pedestrian detection, though DSRC purists scoff at this." The very notion of integrating DSRC into smartphones is interesting. It could even bypass the quandary of how to retrofit cars without DSRC. Strategy Analytics' Riches told EE Times, "The smartphone is becoming ubiquitous amongst vehicle owners. When is the last time you took a drive without one?" He contends that leveraging the LTE platform could lead to a much more rapid rollout of V2X capabilities across the fleet. Of course, there are critics who are worried about LTE's latency issues. Riches, while conceding the point, noted, "They may have a point for some highly time-critical situations -- but these are the ones that are often better served with on-board sensors." Big mistake Perhaps, one of the biggest mistakes the United States is making in its vision for the future of V2X is the conspicuous absence of US mobile operators in the debate, according to Egil Juliussen, HIS Automotive's principal analyst responsible for infotainment and ADAS. He pointed out that cellular operators are natural partners for V2X, because their cell towers can integrate V2I. Without leveraging the cellular infrastructure to integrate V2I, V2X will be a much more expensive proposition. In contrast, he told us, in Europe, the mobile industry has been actively participating in V2X trials. Riches, pointing out that most government and big-industry developments are avoiding LTE, said, "That could be a big mistake." He elaborated: "If certain vehicle functions are only available when the car is connected via some form of V2X, then those functions can only take off when there is a significant proportion of the road network and/or fleet that supports those technologies. It's building a new network from scratch." How the industry will deal with V2X's lack of scalability remains unknown. "It's a bit crazy," Riches added, "and no one has really explained to me who is going to pay for it all." Meanwhile, Japan, which has gone ahead with building ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) spot services infrastructure, appears to be going through a major rethinking of its strategy. (See: Japan No Longer Gung-Ho on Vehicle-to-Infra Alone.)

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