随着全球经济逐渐从欧洲成长缓慢导致的长期衰退中走出来，半导体产业正开始迎向美好的发展前景。然而，从技术方面来看，全球芯片供应商也将面临可能影响其业务模式的种种挑战。
这是市调公司IC Insights总裁Bill McClean针对全球半导体产业发展的两极预测，“一般来看，半导体产业的成长趋势在未来十年内可望提升，”他说。
整体而言，他预期半导体领域在未来十年内可望实现8%的成长以及ASP微幅增加。这明显优于过去十年成长4.7%以及ASP下滑3%的表现。
特别是受到全球GDP成长的带动，McClean预期全球半导体市场将在2015年与2016年时分别成长11%与13%。此外，他还预测半导体产业下一波的衰退期将从2017年开始。
McClean预期，全球GDP成长可望带动芯片业成长
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McClean认为，在未来的五年内，尽管技术挑战仍相当严苛，但整个产业将持续降低每晶体管成本。不过，他认为到了10nm节点，业界开始采用极紫外光(EUV)微影技术与450mm晶圆时，一切就很难说了。
“电子系统销售背后的整个基础架构可能会崩解──这绝对有其可能性，”McClean表示，“我不知道将会发生什么事，但这将会是负面的，而唯一的问题是情况有多严重。”
然而，Globalfoundries的一位代表并不同意这样的看法。他认为，芯片制造商在20nm以后制程开始使用双重图案微影技术时，每晶体管成本就已经持续升高了。而透过使用 FinFET与系统划分等更智能的设计方法，则可缓解成本的高涨。
透过以下的图表，McClean提供了他对半导体产业发展的预测细节，包括深入观察在可预见的未来仍拥有巨大成长动能的中国市场等。
McClean认为全球半导体产业在2017年将面对另一波衰退。
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：2017年亚洲IC市场将占全球六成
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2017年亚洲IC市场将占全球六成
McClean提供2008-2014年之间全球半导体市场的每季统计与预测数字；以及2017年以前的全球各区域半导体市场预测，显示亚洲正取得越来越大的市占率。
2008-2014年全球IC市场预测
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2007-2017年全球IC市场占有率(以地区计)
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：逻辑与存储器元件市场走势
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逻辑与存储器元件市场走势
类比元件持续占据较高比重，而DRAM与快闪存储器价格(ASP)则明显增加。
2012-2013年类比数位IC市场预测
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2012-2013年DRAM与flash IC市场季成长预测
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本文下一页：晶圆厂未来三年持续扩张
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晶圆厂未来三年持续扩张
随着芯片制造商积极投入，晶圆厂设备支出将在2016年以前持续增加。但大部份的设备投资支出都来自于一小部份的大型厂商。
全球半导体资本支出趋势
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2013年主要的IC代工厂(含IDM)
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本文下一页：三星对于苹果的重量：46亿美元
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三星对于苹果的重量：46亿美元
电子产业最值得关注的竞争事件之一──McClean估计，苹果今年将付出46亿美元的代工服务费用给三星。他认为，对于苹果而言，这是一项很好的交易，因为三星提供了稳定供应的先进技术优势。他推测，三星还为其搭配了存储器与代工服务的价格优惠，给予苹果很大的好处。
许多业界观察家预测苹果将转单给台积电，还有人认为台积电目前建厂的Fab 14就是为了苹果所打造的。McClean则表示，台积电目前已无法再承接苹果的客制芯片了，让苹果大量且先进的代工需求没有太多选择的余地。
三星代工分析
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本文下一页：2017年中国芯片市场占全球近40%
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2017年中国芯片市场占全球近40%
虽然中国的GDP一直呈下降趋势，但仍有高达7%的成长，它仍是全球芯片使用量占最大比重的市场。事实上，它也已经成为全球个人电脑(PC)、手机、汽车与数位电视的主要消费市场了。
中国3Q10-2Q13之间的每季GDP
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中国IC市占率预测
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中国在全球市占率排名第一的领域
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本文下一页：本土芯片制造仅为3%，尚在起步阶段
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本土芯片制造仅为3%，尚在起步阶段
中国虽然是全球芯片消费的最大市场，但在芯片制造业方面仍在起步阶段。McClean预计，中国在2017年的芯片制造仅将从目前的3%增加到6%左右。其中，英特尔(Intel)和海力士(Hynix)是迄今为止在中国最大的芯片制造商，而三星计划明年在中国打造一座大型晶圆厂。
中国IC市场 vs IC生产趋势
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中国市场排名前十大的IC制造商
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本文下一页：10nm时代，还剩几家厂商能放手一搏？
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10nm时代，还剩几家厂商能放手一搏？
McClean表示，到了2017年时，全球只有不到8家厂商有能力投资于10nm芯片制造。这意味着大型芯片制造商与小型厂商之间的鸿沟将持续明显扩大。
1H13全球前25大半导体厂商销售排名(含代工厂)
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2013年主要的IC代工厂(含IDM)
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考原文：Silicon Sees Schizophrenic Forecast，by Rick Merritt
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Economically, the semiconductor industry is headed for good times as the global economy pulls out of prolonged recession led by slow growth in Europe. Technologically, chip vendors are facing challenges that ultimately could undermine their business model.
That was the appropriately schizophrenic forecast offered by Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, in his annual fall forecast here. "In general the trend for growth in semiconductors will improve in the next 10 years," McClean said.
Overall, he expects in the current 10 years a consolidating chip sector could see 8 percent growth and flat to slightly positive average selling prices. That's significantly better than the 4.7 percent growth and 3 percent ASP declines of the past decade.
Specifically, McClean forecasts market growth will nudge up to 11 percent and 13 percent in 2015 and 2016, largely on rising worldwide GDP growth. He also pegged the next down cycle of the semiconductor industry will start in 2017.
McClean said he believes the industry as a whole will continue to lower costs per transistor over the next five years despite steep technical challenges. However, he suggested all bets are off at the 10nm level when the industry adopts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and 450mm wafers.
"To get to 10nm we are already planning on playing tricks with EUV and we don't even have EUV in place," he said. "I've been through debates about getting to submicron, but this seems more real to me," said McClean who has tracked the industry since the 1980s.
Rising transistor costs would undermine systems sales based on traditional replacement cycles that anticipate significantly cheaper, faster systems every two years.
"The whole infrastructure behind electronics systems sales could fall away -- that's definitely a possibility," McClean said. "I don’t know exactly what's going to happen when, but it’s a negative and they only question is how negative is it," he said.
Members of an elite audience of industry forecasters at his presentation here disagreed. As chip makers start using double-patterned lithography at 20nm and beyond, cost per transistor are already going up, said a representative of Globalfoundries here. But those costs can be mitigated by smart use of design features such as FinFETs and system partitioning.
In foils on the following pages, McClean provided details on his forecasts, including an in-depth look at China which remains for the foreseeable future a big force is using and a small forcing in making chips, he said.
By the numbers and regions
McClean provided a quarterly breakdown of his forecast through 2014 (above) and a regional outlook through 2017 (below) which shows Asia grabbing an increasing share of the market.
By logic and memory
Analog is taking a slightly larger share of the pie in the short term (above) while DRAM and flash see significantly rising ASPs.
Of fabs and foundries
Fab gear spending is generally on the rise through 2016 as chip makers set a heady pace (above). But most of the checks get written by an increasingly small set of big chip makers (below).
Of Samsung and Apple
In one of the most watched rivalries in electronics, Apple will pay an estimated $4.6 billion to Samsung for foundry services this year, McClean estimates. It's a good deal for Apple, he says, because Samsung provides a stable supply of leading-edge technology. He speculates Samsung also bundles prices for memory and foundry, giving Apple a great deal.
Many industry watchers are alive with predictions Apple will shift to TSMC which is building a Fab 14 some say is just for Apple. McClean says TSMC has not had the capacity to take on Apple's custom chips to date, leaving Apple few choices for its high volume, leading-edge needs.
Chips inside China, Part 1
Although China's GDP has been trending down to a still hefty 7 percent (above), it continues to consume an incresasingly large share of the world's silicon (below). Indeed it has become a top consumer of PCs, cellphones, cars, and digital TVs (bottom).
Chips inside China, Part 2
Although a rising giant in chip consumption, China is still a midget in chip manufacturing. McClean expects it will only rise from making about 3 percent of worldwide chips today to about 6 percent in 2017. Intel and Hynix are by far the largest chip makers in China today with Samsung ramping up a big fab next year.
Chip consolidation continues
Fewer than eight companies will be able to make the investments to move into 10nm chip making, the state of the art for 2017, says McClean. That means the big gulf between the big and small chip makers will significantly widen.
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责编：Quentin
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