专家预言摩尔定律将在2020年失效

在日前举行的《Hot Chips》大会上，发表专题演说的业界专家指出，预告“IC中可容纳的晶体管数每隔18-24个月就会增加1倍，从而使性能也提升1倍”的“摩尔定律”(Moore's Law)即将在2020年约7nm节点时走到尽头。 随着微影技术进展停滞不前以及制程技术逐渐面临限极限，业界的种种预测也越来越多。虽然业界有许多人都预期摩尔定律即将终结，但很少有人能够提出深入且具说服力的解释。 “对于时程的规划，我认为2020年将会是足以说摩尔定律已死的时间点，”致力于寻找后续新技术的美国国防部先进研究计划署(DARPA)微系统技术办公室总 监Robert Colwell指出，“你或许会说是2022年，但无论是发生在7nm或5nm节点时，它都是个大问题。”Robert Colwell曾经是英特尔 Pentium 处理器设计团队的工程师之一。 他指出，过去三十年来，摩尔定律持续呈指数级成长，速度从1MHz提升到5GHz，增加了大约3,500倍。相形之下，同一时期内的智能架构所能实现的最大进展不过增加了50倍。 指数级成长的终结通常由于本身无法持续自然地进展。Colwell说，遗憾的是，这样的机会并不多见。 “我并不指望未来30年还能在电子产业看到另一个3,500倍的速度提升，或许只有50倍吧！”遗憾的是，Colwell指出，“我认为这个领域并没有多余的钱可挹注于每年仅增加10%的一点好处。” 对于许多人还盲目地相信会找到另一个指数级成长曲线以取代摩尔定律，Colwell也对其泼了一盆冷水，“我们或许能进行一大堆的调整，但却无法解决指数级的损失。” DARPA列出多达30种可能取代摩尔定律主流 CMOS 技术的替代方案。Colwell说：“我个人认为其中有两、三种具前景的方案，但却都不被看好。” DARPA的微系统部门就有两项资金充份的计划，其一是以Upside程序探索近似运算，另一个则是探索旋转扭矩振荡器的影响，以解决部份方案在较低功耗时遭遇的问题。 Colwell还列出可改善芯片后CMOS技术的其它方式，包括3D堆栈、新架构与应用程序、新的开关技术、更好的人机接口，以及只是一般的创意行销等。 Colwell提出了几种具体情况，例如以千百个原子的层级打造组件。此外，“还有许多人机接口等，能找到更佳互动方式的人就能取得成功。” 随着摩尔定律逐渐接近尾声，他表示，“最后将由经济因素决定摩尔定律的终止，而不是实体定律，所以看紧你的荷包吧！” 也就是说，推动芯片持续向前进展的新机会将会出现，因此，工程师们必须“随时改变设计思维，但同时也计划未来，因为一切已不会太遥远了，”他说。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Susan Hong 参考英文原文：Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says Rick Merritt PALO ALTO, Calif. — Moore's Law -- the ability to pack twice as many transistors on the same sliver of silicon every two years -- will come to an end as soon as 2020 at the 7nm node, said a keynoter at the Hot Chips conference here. While many have predicted the end of Moore's Law, few have done it so passionately or convincingly. The predictions are increasing as lithography advances stall and process technology approaches atomic limits. "For planning horizons, I pick 2020 as the earliest date we could call it dead," said Robert Colwell, who seeks follow-on technologies as director of the microsystems group at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. "You could talk me into 2022, but whether it will come at 7 or 5nm, it's a big deal," said the engineer who once managed a Pentium-class processor design at Intel. Moore's Law was a rare exponential growth factor that over 30 years brought speed boosts from 1 MHz to 5 GHz, a 3,500-fold increase. By contrast, the best advances in clever architectures delivered about 50x increases over the same period, he said. Exponentials always come to an end by the very nature of their unsustainably heady growth. Unfortunately, such rides are rare, Colwell said. "I don't expect to see another 3,500x increase in electronics -- maybe 50x in the next 30 years," he said. Unfortunately, "I don't think the world's going to give us a lot of extra money for 10 percent [annual] benefit increases," he told an audience of processor designers. Colwell poured cold water on blind faith that engineers will find another exponential growth curve to replace Moore's Law. "We will make a bunch of incremental tweaks, but you can't fix the loss of an exponential," he said. DARPA tracks a list of as many as 30 possible alternatives to the CMOS technology that has been the workhorse of Moore's Law. "My personal take is there are two or three promising ones and they are not very promising," he said. DARPA's microsystems group has "a fair amount of money chasing" two programs. One is exploring approximate computing in a program called Upside; another is exploring the effects of spin-torque oscillators to settle on partial solutions at relatively low power. Colwell ticked off a list of other routes to improving chips post-CMOS, including 3D stacking, new architectures and apps, new switching technologies, better human interfaces, and just plain creative marketing. "You laugh, but you will see this," he said, citing Intel's dolls of fab workers. Colwell called out a few specifics, such as work building devices at the level of a hundred to a thousand atoms. In addition, "there's a lot of work in brain-machine interfacing -- people who figure out better interfaces will win," he said. As the end approaches, "when Moore's Law stops it will be economics that stops it, not physics, so keep your eye on the money," he said. That said, new opportunities will emerge to nudge chips forward, so engineers need to "keep designing our heads off, but at the same time plan for the future because it's not that far off," he said.