如果你计划发展新事业，并打算在成长迅速的手机市场一鸣惊人，劝你还是忘了这件事，把你的企划书束之高阁；说真的，手机市场已经饱和了。
“有超过34亿人，几乎是全球人口的一半，都至少拥有一支手机。”总部位于美国华盛顿的研究机构Worldwatch Institute最近发表一份报告指出：“在2010年，全球就有超过九成的人口被手机信号覆盖。”
这一切看起来很好，每个人都在用手机讲话、发短信、玩游戏；但移动通信注册用户的数量却带来了完全不同的视野。
根 据Worldwatch Institute统计，全球移动通信注册用户的数量已经远超过拥有手机的人口，但成长速度也在趋缓，并在2010年达到一年增加6.8亿户的高峰：“移动通信用户成长率自2011年开始下滑，估计在2013年新增用户数量仅有4.24亿，比2010年少了2.5亿。”
该研究机构的“移动通信用户(mobile subscriptions)”意指接取移动通信网络的活跃帐户，但很多人其实同时拥有很多手机，或是在一支手机中使用多个SIM卡门号，所以移动通信用户数超过拥有手机人口数是可以理解的；不过，这也是问题所在。
全球移动通信用户总数估计将由2000年的10亿，在2013年底突破68亿的门槛，但在未来恐怕很难再有太多成长。可是国际电信联盟(ITU)期望，全球移动通信用户数能在2014年超过全球人口数，该期限只剩下三个月不到。
Worldwatch Institute的报告写道：“手机产业的未来将会与新用户的增加较不相关，而会更着重于改善现有的服务品质。”目前全球大多数移动通信网路仍使用2G技术，能让用户通话与互传简讯，该类网络用户目前数量有近47亿。
许多研究机构针对手机市场所发布的迷人前景预测报告，其实都是以全球观点来看；Worldwatch Institute的报告也不是那种常见的赛马会输赢分析，而是以社会与经济的观点提供了对手机市场的分析。
报告中提到：“也许在开发中市场不断成长之手机产业的一个重要边际效应，是在一些贫穷区域，金融服务已经与手机使用捆 绑在一起。在一些高度贫困地区，移动通信用户在100个人之中有50个人左右，但同样地区拥有实体银行帐户的人口比例大概只有37%。”
因此：“金融机构已经开始利用现有的手机基础建设作为交易主体──例如让客户开储蓄帐户、支付帐单或是汇款──这些动作都可以在地区的手机零售商店进行。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：那些旧手机跑去哪里了？
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• 低端机种库存拖累，Q3本土智能手机出货季衰7.3%
• 廉价策略：联发科一招鲜，吃遍天r1Tesmc
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Worldwatch Institute的报告也提及了手机对环境带来的效应；据了解，美国人普遍认为该平均每两年换一次手机(年轻使用者可能更频繁)，所以这意味着一年会有多少手机变成垃圾？该报告指出，光是在2010年，美国就有1.5亿手机被丢掉或是回收。
那些旧手机跑去哪里了？这些旧手机──或是所谓的电子废弃物──通常会被出口到印度或中国等地；在那些地区有一些回收商会从废弃手机中提取有价值的材料，但所使用的危险化学品却会损害工人健康，并为环境带来污染。
据了解，暴露在手机零组件回收过程中，可能会受到严重的神经系统损伤，特别是那些受雇于回收商人的童工。
所以也许你的下一个大事业，是为开发中市场提供可透过手机使用金融服务的应用程序，或是与处理/回收旧手机有关的服务。除此之外，那些还认为手机市场会快速成长的生意人们，最后恐怕只能寄望透过电视购物频道来卖产品了吧？
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Judith Cheng
参考英文原文：Mobile Phones Too Crowded: Nobody Goes There Anymore，by Junko Yoshida
相关阅读：
• 多方因素影响，智能手机面板均价持续下滑
• 低端机种库存拖累，Q3本土智能手机出货季衰7.3%
• 廉价策略：联发科一招鲜，吃遍天r1Tesmc
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Mobile Phones Too Crowded: Nobody Goes There Anymore
Junko Yoshida, Chief International Correspondent
MADISON, Wis. — If you are developing a new business plan for the next big thing you're about to spring on the burgeoning mobile phone market, forget about it. File it. Mothball that sucker. Seriously. The mobile phone market is saturated.
"More than 3.4 billion people, nearly half the world's population, own at least one mobile phone," says a recently released study by the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington independent research organization. "As of 2010, more than 90 percent of people worldwide were covered by a mobile phone signal."
This all seems good. Everybody's talking or texting or gaming. But the number of mobile subscriptions paints a whole different picture. It already far surpasses the number of phone owners, according to the Worldwatch Institute. Subscription growth is slowing; annual additions peaked in 2010 at 680 million. "The subscription rate began to dip in 2011, and an estimated 424 million new subscriptions will be added in 2013 -- some 250 million fewer than in 2010."
By "mobile subscriptions," the institute means the number of active accounts with access to a mobile network. Many people have multiple mobile devices or use multiple SIM cards in one phone, so it's understandable that the number of mobile subscriptions is higher than the number of people owning phones. But here's the rub. Mobile subscriptions, which are projected to grow from 1 billion in 2000 to more than 6.8 billion by the end of 2013, is unlikely to increase by a whole lot more in the future.
The International Telecommunication Union expects the number of mobile subscriptions to surpass the world's population in early 2014. That's just a few months from now.
The Worldwatch Institute writes in its report, "The future of the mobile phone industry will be less about adding new subscriptions and more about improving existing service." The most common mobile network in the world still uses 2G technology that allows users to talk and send text messages. Nearly 4.7 billion mobile subscriptions use that technology today.
With so many market research companies producing reports on mobile phones, the fascinating feature in this one is the genuine global view. Instead of the usual horse-race market predictions about who's winning or losing, the Worldwatch Institute offers analysis on mobile phones from the social and economic points of view. Think about this:
Perhaps one of the most important side effects of the growing mobile phone industry in the developing world is that financial services have become tethered to mobile phone use in poor regions. Areas with high poverty tend to have mobile subscription rates of 50 out of 100 people, while only 37 percent of people living there have access to a physical bank branch. Financial institutions have begun to leverage the existing infrastructure for mobile phones so that a host of transactions -- such as opening a savings account, paying bills, or transferring money -- can be conducted at local mobile retail stores.
The report also touched on the environmental effects of mobile phones. People in the United States are believed to replace their phones every two years on average. (Young users probably do so more often.) How many phones get chucked every year? According to the report, 150 million phones were thrown away or recycled in the US alone in 2010.
What happens to old phones?
Old phones, along with other so-called e-waste, are often exported to countries like India and China, where the valuable materials contained in them are extracted in ways that endanger the health of the workers and that pollute the local environment with dangerous toxics. Exposure to the phones’ components can have severe neurological effects, especially on the children who are most often the ones involved in this extraction.
Your next big thing could be in developing apps to devlier financial services on mobile phone in the developing world, or it could be delivering services that deal squarely with old phones. Either way, counting on the fast growth of mobile phones is a strategy whose only future might be on late-night infomercials.
责编：Quentin
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