中国有可能出现一个无论在规模、创造力和影响力方面，都能和德州仪器(TI)媲美的公司吗？
确实，今天的中国还没有办法培育出像TI这样的公司，而且，在可预见的未来机会仍然很低。
上周，在深圳举办的中国无晶圆厂(fables) CEO论坛暨颁奖活动中，六位来自中国本土无晶圆厂、EDA供货商和晶圆制造厂的高阶主管，以及清华大学教授针对此一主题进行了讨论。这些业界资深高阶主管们以惊人的坦率态度承认，要在中国培养出像TI这样的公司，还有非常长的一段路要走。
没错。中国正在迅速转换它在电子产业中所扮演的角色──从制造中心朝设计中心转移。最新年度中国无晶圆厂查结果显示，中国当地芯片设计公司采用45nm或以下制程量产的数字IC年成率达33.3%。
这六位专家在讨论中点出了七大中国IC设计产业为何无法塑造出像TI这样规模公司的主要原因。
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1. 大多数中国芯片设计公司以“生存下去”为依归
Dioo Microcircuits Co. (上海) 有限公司总裁兼CEO Jeff Ju表示，“本地人都承受着巨大的生存压力。”中国本土无晶圆厂不仅没有自己的IP，而且还得从头开始做研发。就这一点而言，他们无法想象能有机会赶上像TI这样的大型企业。有时候，由于他们将所有力气都花在日复一日的例行工作上，因此“中国本土无晶圆厂甚至对于晶圆厂可提供的技术和IP也不甚熟悉，”Ju说。
2. 他们缺乏多产品线组合
仅有少数中国芯片设计公司拥有多条产品线。但有更多公司正忙于追寻他们认为的最热门的市场。而相反地，TI的营收来自许多种不同产品线，包括模拟、嵌入式(微控制器)、无线业务等。
3. 他们不知道如何扩展规模
许多国际型公司都是以“并购和收购来形成更大企业规模，”但中国的芯片设计公司并非如此，北京清华大学教授魏少军卫说。他解释道，中国第一代小型无晶圆厂半导体公司的CEO相当“眷恋”他们成立的公司，他们很难与其它公司合并。“这是一个很大的问题。”
4. 缺乏开放心胸
“与其它公司合并的基本原则，是彼此都要同意，” X'ian Semipower Electronic Technology公司 CEO Luo Yi说。一般而言，中国的高阶主管不会以开放的心胸和其它公司就可能产生互惠互利的交易进行沟通。他表示，“除了华为，我没有看到还有多少中国的芯片设计公司能做到这一点。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：只会在“精神上”效法
相关阅读：
• 不以营收论英雄，2011年全球半导体厂商研发支出排名
• 本土无晶圆厂业者们真正需要的策略
• 无晶圆厂经营模式在14nm的鸡血下仍将坚挺PRvesmc
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5. 他们还在找寻属于自己的细分市场
“要想打败TI，中国还有很长的路要走，” Chipone(深圳) CEO Zhang Jin fang说。对我们来说，重点是找到合适的细分市场，他表示。“要确定策略市场相当困难。”截至目前，中国无晶圆厂公司通常的状况是，他们会找到具有相同机会或类似的细分市场，而后，他们便展开价格战。
6. 预测往往失准
中国的无晶圆厂半导体公司对芯片市场的需求预测往往相当可怕。例如，中国的市场环境往往有利于将芯片倒卖到香港，因而让业界有着芯片短缺的印象。如此一来，产能过剩就是不可避免的结果了，而最终这又助长了价格竞争。
CEO圆桌讨论：谁是下一个TI
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7. 他们“精神上”效法TI，但实际做到程度相当低
中 国无晶圆厂半导体公司都渴望向TI学习，但是“TI有些特性，是中国公司学不来的，”X'ian 的Luo说。“TI为未来的产品开发挹注了极大规模的投资。”要中国的公司去预测未来五到十年的市场趋势并做出投资是极为困难的，他们也没有多余的资金可 以做长期投资。如果你想拿一个未成形的市场说服他们投入开发，或是让他们拿出更多钱来投资，基本上都不大可能，
Luo预测，华为或许会成为中国的TI。但他也并未真的肯定。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译： Joy Teng
参考英文原文：Why China can’t create a Texas Instruments yet ，by Junko Yoshida， Miya Kong
相关阅读：
• 不以营收论英雄，2011年全球半导体厂商研发支出排名
• 本土无晶圆厂业者们真正需要的策略
• 无晶圆厂经营模式在14nm的鸡血下仍将坚挺PRvesmc
{pagination}
Why China still can’t create the next Texas Instruments
Junko Yoshida
Will China ever create an enterprise comparable in size, creativity and impact to Texas Instruments?
SHENZHEN, China – Will China ever create an enterprise comparable in size, creativity and impact to Texas Instruments?
So far, it hasn't come close. For now, there’s not much chance it will.
With surprising candor, Chinese executives here acknowledge last week (Sept. 7) that they face a long road ahead before China can give birth to a chip company of TI’s caliber. An industry panel including Chinese fabless CEOs, executives working for EDA vendors and a foundry along with a professor from Tsinghua University, debated the matter during the China Fabless CEO Forum & Awards event, organized by EE Times-China, a sister publication of EE Times.
China is rapidly transitioning from its role as a manufacturing center to a design center for the electronics industry. The latest annual China Fabless Survey by EE Times-China revealed that volume production of digital ICs at 45 nm or below by mainland China local fabless companies has grown by 33.3 percent over the previous year.
The panel discussion lacked the usual chest-thumping by the Chinese executives. Instead, there was soul searching and a list of seven reasons why China is still better at tea than TI.
1. Many Chinese fabless companies are too overwhelmed to survive.
Jeff Ju, president and CEO of Dioo Microcircuits Co. (Shanghai), said, “Local guys are under tremendous pressure to survive.” Local Chinese fabless with no IP of their own are starting their own R&D from scratch. They can’t, at this point, imagine a way to catch up with a behemoth like TI. Sometimes, because they’re consumed by day-to-day operation, “local Chinese fabless aren’t even familiar with the technologies and IPs that foundries can offer them,” Ju added.
2. Lacking multiple product lines.
Few Chinese fabless companies have multiple product lines. Many, too busy chasing what they perceive to be the hottest market of the moment, are one-trick ponies. In contrast, TI has revenue coming from multiple sources ranging from analog to embedded (microcontrollers), wireless and others.
3. They don’t know how to get bigger.
Many international companies grow “big to bigger by mergers and acquisitions,” but this isn’t so for Chinese fabless companies, said Shaojun Wei, professor at Tsinghua University (Beijing). The first-generation CEOs of small local fabless companies are “too emotionally attached” to the companies they founded, and they find it very difficult to merge with other companies, he explained. “That’s a big problem here.”
They suck at forecasting
4. They’re not open minded.
“Fundamental to mergers is to agree with other companies,” said Luo Yi, CEO of X’ian Semipower Electronic Technology Co. (X’ian). Chinese executives, generally speaking, don’t communicate with other companies with an open mind about the possibility of a mutually beneficial deal. “Except for Huawei, I don’t see many Chinese fabless companies that can pull that off.”
5. They’re not identifying the right segments.
“To beat TI, China has a long way to go,” said Zhang Jin fang, CEO of Chipone (Shenzhen). The most important thing for us is to find the right segments of the market that we should be in, he added. “To identify that strategic market is hard.” So far, what usually happens is that a whole bunch of China fabless firms spot the same opportunity and go after the same or similar market segments en masse. Then, they all try to beat each other on price.
6. They suck at forecasting.
Chinese fabless companies are terrible at forecasting the market demand for their chips. A Chinese market environment that tends to favor the reselling of chips in Hong Kong, for example, creates a broad impression that there’s a chip shortage. The inevitable result is overproduction and an oversupply of chips, thus fueling price competition and a buyer’s market.
7. The "spirit" to match TI is willing, but the substance is weak.
China fabless companies aspire toward TI’s example, but “TI has something special Chinese companies can’t touch,” said X’ian Semipower’s CEO Luo. “TI has the big bucks it takes to invest in the future.” It’s hard for most Chinese companies caught up in today’s market forecast to think five to 10 years into the future. Even if they were tempted to invest for the long-term, they simply don’t have the capital to spare. They either need a sure thing — which is impossible when you’re envisioning scenarios that have yet to develop — or a whole lot more money than they have right now.
Huawei could be China’s TI someday, Luo predicted. But he’s not betting on it.
责编：Quentin
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